MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, June 9, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

Even though this is a matchup of two fill-in starting pitchers on Sunday, look for a relatively low scoring affair nonetheless when Chad Gaudin and the San Francisco Giants (32-29, 11-18 away) pay a visit to rookie Tyler Skaggs and the Arizona Diamondbacks (35-27, 17-13 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 4:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

This is a series between the top two teams in the National League West Division with the Diamondbacks leading the way by 2½ games over the World Champion Giants after these teams split the first two games of this series, with the Diamondbacks winning a 3-1 pitching duel as Patrick Corbin outdueled Matt Cain on Friday and the Giants then winning a higher scoring 10-5 contest Saturday behind Madison Bumgarner.

The rubber match feature two starters that have made one and two starts respectively, but there is still reason to believe that both hurlers will throw well enough to keep this game in the single-digits, especially with Pablo Sandoval out for the Giants after Kung Fu Panda re-aggravated a left foot strain running out a ball last night.

Gaudin has been pitching well out of the bullpen for the Giants all year and he beat the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 in his first start of the season last Sunday after 18 relief appearances, as the right-hander held one of the most potent lineups in baseball vs. righties to two runs and four hits in six innings with five strikeouts and no walks. That leaves Gaudin at 1-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP overall this season in 36.2 innings with 35 strikeouts.

Keep in mind that Gaudin is a veteran of 76 Major League starts so this is not at all a new experience for him. And that is a good thing as he is filling the rotation spot of Ryan Vogelsong, who has been moved to the 60-day Disabled List after having surgery to repair two breaks in his right hand sustained when he was hit by a pitch.

Speaking of filling rotation spots, Skaggs is subbing for Brandon McCarthy, who is on the 15-day DL with a shoulder injury and should be out several weeks. Skaggs had only 29.1 innings of Major League experience prior to this year so he is still a rookie, and the young southpaw made a nice impression in his first 2013 start as he tossed six scoreless innings while allowing only three hits and striking out nine vs. a very good Texas lineup.

Unfortunately Skaggs was not as good his second time out vs. the Cardinals on Tuesday as he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings, although the good news is he had four more strikeouts and no walks. Scouts have been raving about Skaggs’s “stuff” for a couple of years now and he can return closer to the form he displayed in his first start here with the help of Sandoval being out.

Besides, should either starter get in trouble today these are two of the better bullpens in the National League with San Francisco ranking third in the league with a 2.88 pen ERA and the Arizona pen ranking fifth at 2.99.

Finally, the ‘under’ is 17-11 in all Arizona home games this year with those games averaging a combined 8.03 runs, and look for that pattern to continue for at least one more game on Sunday.

[gameodds]3/236010/238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Giants, Diamondbacks ‘under’ 9 (-116)