MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, May 19, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, May. 19, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

Do not expect too much scoring in a spacious ballpark on Sunday when Dan Haren and the Washington Nationals (23-20, 11-11 away) pay a visit to Andrew Cashner and the San Diego Padres (19-23, 11-10 home) in the final game of a four-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, Ca at 4:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -111.

The Nationals are the defending National League East Division Champions and they find themselves in second place so far this season 1½ behind the Atlanta Braves after splitting the first six games of this 10-game West Division road trip, including taking the first two games of this series before falling short 2-1 on Saturday as Eric Stults outdueled Jordan Zimmermann. 

Washington had quite possibly the best top three starters in the National League last season in Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Zimmermann, and they felt they bolstered that staff even more with their signing of Dan Haren as a free agent in December. However, he did not get off to a great start in a Washington uniform.

Haren failed to record a Quality Start in his first four starts in a National uniform, but he has looked more like the Haren of old over his last four outings while posting a 3.00 ERA with a tiny 0.93 WHIP and a fantastic ratio of 16 strikeouts against only two walks in 27 innings. After a disappointing season with the Los Angeles Angels last year where he posted an abnormal 4.33 ERA, Haren seems on his way back to the form that made him underrated for many years.

He has also pitched better than his 5-3 career record vs. the Padres when facing them, posting a 3.39 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 15 appearances with a very nice 84 strikeouts vs. 18 walks in 95.2 innings. He is now facing a San Diego offense batting just .235 overall while averaging 3.80 runs per game over the last 10 contests.

The Padres began this week by sweeping the Baltimore Orioles on the road in a brief two-game series, but they were unable to maintain that momentum returning home for their first two games vs. the Nats. However, they now have a chance to earn a split with Cashner on the hill.

Cashner is 2-2 while impressively allowing two runs or less in four of his five starts overall and he has certainly been able to take advantage of this pitcher’s ballpark in Petco Park, going 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in this stadium. This will be his first ever start vs. the Nationals although he has pitched very well in 5.2 scoreless innings of relief against them, allowing only two hits with six strikeouts and one walk.

He is facing a Washington offense that is batting a mere .213 while averaging 3.50 runs per game over the last 10 games and that again figures to be without Bryce Harper today with a bruised left knee. Finally, the ‘under’ is 32-12-3 in the last 47 meetings in San Diego and look for that trend to continue on Sunday.


MLB Pick: Nationals, Padres ‘under’ 7 (-111)

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