MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, July 12, 2014 4:08 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

 

Even in the altitude of Colorado, look for this total output to remain in the single-digits Saturday when veteran right-hander Kevin Correia and the Minnesota Twins (44-49, 20-28 away) pay a visit to rookie southpaw Tyler Matzek and the Colorado Rockies (40-53, 24-23 home) in the second game of a three-game interleague series from Coors Field in Denver, CO at 4:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 10½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +102.

The Rockies took the series opener here last night 6-2 in a game that stayed ‘under’ the posted total of 10. That helped keep the Twins in last place in the American League Central one game behind the fourth place Chicago White Sox, as well as 11½ games behind the first place Detroit Tigers. The good news for Minnesota is that at 42-50, the Twins are actually running ahead of the pace that saw them finish with identical 66-96 records the last two years.

The Rockies are now fourth in the National League West, just 1½ ahead of the team with the worst record in the National League in the Arizona Diamondbacks and 11 games behind the Dodgers and Giants, who are tied for first. Colorado does still have a winning 24-23 record here at home though where surprisingly the ‘over’ and ‘under’ has split at 22-22 despite the humidor not holding the scoring down as much as past years.

That total record points to the Rockies playing to a lot of inflated posted totals at home and we think today may be another one of those situations. Sure Correia will not blow you away with his 4-11 record, 4.79 ERA and 1.42 WHIP for the Twins, but do not be fooled by those figures as he has actually been one of the better pitchers on the Minnesota staff lately.

You see, Correia has now allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts after doing so again in his last outing Monday vs. the Mariners in Seattle, where he allowed two runs and only five hits in seven innings in a very unlucky 2-0 loss. Furthermore, the one time in this stretch where Correia did not allowed two runs or less, he allowed a reasonable four runs at Texas.

Perhaps most importantly, Correia has already proven that he can handle pitching in this altitude as he tossed 6.2 scoreless innings while allowing only three hits the last time he pitched at Coors Field as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Matzek is a former first round draft pick by the Rockies that has already has some nice moments at the Major League level despite his 1-3 record, 4.79 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Matzek has actually pitched well while allowing three runs or less in four of his six starts in the big leagues, as his numbers are skewed by allowing 10 runs in 11.1 innings in the other two outings.

Matzek is a 6-foot-tall southpaw that hits 96 MPH with his fastball and has a plus curveball, so it is understandable why he was the 11th overall pick of the 2009 MLB Draft. His ascent through the Colorado has been stunted by his propensity for walking people, but as long as Matzek can harness his control, he should be very tough his first time through the league.

Nothing illustrates this better than the fact that in his two bad outings, he has eight walks in those 11.1 innings. However, he has just three walks in 24.1 innings in the other four starts, and the end result has been a 3.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over those outings!

Look for the “good” Matzek to show up here and that should lead to a Colorado ‘under’ on Saturday.

MLB Pick: Twins, Rockies ‘under’ 10½ (+102)