MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, July 5, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

There could be a low scoring battle on Saturday night between two veteran right-handers when Colby Lewis and the Texas Rangers (37-49, 19-26 away) pay a visit to the ageless Bartolo Colon and the New York Mets (38-48, 18-21 home) in the second game of a three-game interleague series from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:15 ET in a game televised regionally on FOX.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -125.

The Mets halted a four-game losing streak by winning the series opener 6-5 here last night despite Texas ace Yu Darvish starting for the Rangers, although he did not factor in the decision as New York broke a 4-4 ties with two runs in the eighth inning. The Mets thus broke a tie with the Phillies and now have sole possession of fourth place in the National League East, 10 games behind the first place Atlanta Braves.

The Rangers were expected to compete for the American League West title prior to the season but they have been beset by injuries, in fact leading the Major Leagues in manpower games lost to the Disabled List. As a result, they are also a fourth-place team in their division, except they are a whopping 16 games behind the team with the best record in baseball, the Oakland Athletics.

The 41-year-old Colon discovered the Fountain of Youth while he was with the Athletics last season, and while his overall numbers this year are not on par with last year, he is still 8-6 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He has really rediscovered his 2013 form over his last three starts however as he has a 2.86 ERA and a minuscule 0.77 WHIP in those outings with 11 strikeouts vs. two walks.

In fact, Colon has had great command numbers all year with 79 strikeouts and just 15 walks, and he has also allowed only three home runs in 16 starts! He is facing a Texas lineup averaging just 3.30 runs over the last 10 games without hitting a single home run during that span.

Lewis may not be as advanced in age as Colon, but he debuted in the Major Leagues way back in 2002 and missed all of last year following Tommy John surgery. He may not yet be at full strength as he is only 5-5 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.74 WHIP this season.

However, Lewis does come off of a nice start vs. the Minnesota Twins where he allowed only two runs on five hits with eight strikeouts and not a single walk in six innings, leaving him with a nice ratio of 65 strikeouts vs. 26 walls for the season with only two home runs allowed in 14 starts, so there are indications that he is on the right track.

Besides, he is facing a Mets’ offense that has struggled mightily vs. right-handed pitchers here at spacious Citi Field, batting just .213 while averaging only 3.48 runs per nine innings against them in their own home ballpark.

Therefore, look for both pitchers to have success in an ‘under’ in Flushing, New York on Saturday.

MLB Pick: Rangers, Mets ‘under’ 7½ (-125)