MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, June 28, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

Expect a relatively low scoring game in one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in baseball Saturday night when right-hander Josh Tomlin and the Cleveland Indians (38-41, 15-26 away) pay a visit to southpaw Roenis Elias and the Seattle Mariners (43-37, 20-21 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Safeco Field on Seattle, WA at 10:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.

Do not look now but the Mariners are no longer doormats in the American League West as they are 9-3 in their last 12 games after taking the series opener from the Indians 3-2 here Friday night. That leaves Seattle six games over .500 while in third place in the division and only 6½ games behind the division-leading Oakland Athletics, and remarkably the Mariners would be in the playoffs as the second wild card if the season ended today!

The Indians meanwhile are off to a disappointing start after their surprising run to a Wild Card Playoff spot last year as they are three games under .500 after losing five of their last six games, but the good news is that the Detroit Tigers are not running away with the American League Central as most experts predicted and Cleveland remains just 6½ games out of first while in third place despite the losing record.

Now, Safeco Field has been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball this year as usual, with games here averaging just 7.24 runs per game combined, as we see no reason why this game should be any different. The southpaw Elias, a rookie from Guantanamo, comes off of two sparkling efforts vs. the Royals and Padres where he allowed two runs in 13.2 innings on just eight hits with 11 strikeouts vs. two walks!

That leaves Elias at 7-5 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.19 WHIP for the season to go along with a good ratio of 85 strikeouts vs. 34 walks in 98.2 innings. Moreover, those last two gems mean that Elias has now allowed one run or less four times in his last seven starts.

There is no reason why Elias cannot maintain his fine form while facing Cleveland for the first time ever, as the Indians are batting just .237 vs. left-handed pitchers overall this season and that average drops to .229 vs. southpaws on the road, where they have generated just 3.40 runs per nine innings against them.

Now granted, Tomlin has gone three straight outings without recording a Quality Start and he is only 4-5 with a 4.39 ERA for the season. However, he has actually done his best pitching on the road where he has a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 18 strikeouts vs. only three walks in four starts covering 24.2 innings.

He is not exactly facing a powerhouse lineup either as even the Mariners have had trouble generating offense in their own spacious stadium, especially vs. right-handed pitchers against whom they are batting .214 while averaging 3.76 runs per nine innings here in the Emerald City. Tomlin certainly demonstrated that he appreciates the dimensions the last time he pitched here, allowing only one run on five hits in eight innings with seven strikeouts an not a single walk.

Finally these are two of the better bullpens in the American League, with Seattle in fact leading the league with a 2.63 pen ERA and Cleveland ranking fourth at 3.32, so that should keep late tack-on runs to a minimum.

Therefore, look for the low-scoring trend in Seattle to continue for at least one more night on Saturday.

MLB Pick: Indians, Mariners ‘under’ 7½ (-120)