MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, June 7, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jun. 7, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

Expect the pitchers to set the tone Saturday night in a game involving the team with the best record in the Major Leagues when the ageless Bartolo Colon and the New York Mets (28-33, 15-16 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Tim Hudson and those San Francisco Giants (40-21, 20-9 home) at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 10:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +104.

It has been a banner season for the Bay Area so far with these Giants holding the best record in baseball right now at 40-21 after taking the series opener from the Mets here last night 4-2 in a game that stayed ‘under’ the total, while their neighbors across the bay the Oakland Athletics own the best record in the American League. San Francisco has the biggest lead of any division leader at 8½ games over the Dodgers in the National League West.

Things have not quite been as rosy for the Mets, who sit five games below .400 while in fourth place in the National League East, although things could be a lot worse as they are just a manageable five games behind the first place Braves. New York will have to show serious improvement offensively however to be even be considered as a longshot contender for a playoff spot.

The Giants won the World Series in 2010 and 2012, and they now hope to continue that pattern of winning it all every two years in 2014. They certainly seem to have enough pitching to pull off the trick, ranking third in the Major Leagues with a team ERA of 3.04, and their big off-season signing Hudson has been a major reason why as he leads the majors in ERA!

That ERA now sits at 1.75 after Hudson tossed 14 scoreless innings in his last two starts vs. the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs respectively, allowing only nine hits in those 14 innings with 11 strikeouts vs. two walks. That leaves Tim at 6-2 for the year with a spiffy 0.87 WHIP, and while Hudson has never been a big strikeout guy, he still has a tremendous ratio of 50 strikeouts vs. eight measly walks in 77.1 innings!

Hudson gets away with not putting up huge totals because he is third in the Major Leagues among qualifying starting pitchers in groundball rate at 59.5 percent. He now gets a chance to take advantage of a Mets’ offense that is batting a meager .221 vs. right-handers this season including a pitiful .214 against them the last 10 games. The Mets are 28th out of 30 big league teams in batting average at .233 and also 28th in team OPS at .661 overall.

With all of that being said, Colon is also more than capable of keeping the Mets in this game and of keeping this a very low scoring contest. Bartolo got off to a slow start in his first season in New York after the now 41-year-old turned back the clock with the Athletics last season going 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, along with a great ratio of 117 strikeouts vs. just 29 walks in 190.1 innings.

Colon sits at just 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA overall this year, although his command ratio is still excellent with 57 strikeouts vs. 10 walks in 71.2 innings. However Colon has more closely resembled the Colon of last season over his last three starts, allowing a grand total of four runs on 16 hits in 22.1 innings with 19 strikeouts and five walks, equating to a 1.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

Somewhat surprisingly given that the Athletics and Giants meet every season in interleague play, Colon has only faced San Francisco once since 2003, and that was in 2012 when he went just five innings against the Giants and allowed two runs on six hits with seven strikeouts. Thus, most of this San Francisco lineup is unfamiliar with Colon, which is usually to the pitcher’s advantage.

With all of this in mind, look for an extremely low-scoring game in San Francisco on Saturday.


MLB Pick: Mets, Giants ‘under’ 6½ (+104)

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