MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, May 17, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

Despite what looks like a pitching duel on paper, there could be a higher scoring game than the posted total would indicate Saturday night when reigning Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers (23-20, 14-7 away) pay a visit to youngster Chase Anderson and the Arizona Diamondbacks (16-28, 4-18 home) at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at +100.

Kershaw won the Cy Young by going 16-9 with a league-leading 1.83 ERA and 232 strikeouts in 236 innings last season. He has already faced the Diamondbacks once this year when these teams opened up the season on the MLB odds in Australia, allowing one run on five hits with seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings. He then went on the Disabled List with a back injury but has not missed a beat in his two starts back, as he is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA overall.

Anderson made his Major League debut on the road in Chicago vs. the White Sox on Sunday after posting a 0.69 ERA with 38 strikeouts vs. six walks in Double-A, and he sparkled in his big league debut allowing just one run on two hits in 5.1 innings with six strikeouts vs. one walk, with a solo home run by Moises Sierra being his only blemish. He now makes his home debut for an Arizona team that has the worst home record in the majors at 4-18.

The Dodgers won the series opener 7-0 here last night with Zach Greinke allowing five hits in eight scoreless innings, helping make Los Angeles 16-5 in the last 21 head-to-head meetings overall. Ironically though, while the Dodgers have had great success vs. Arizona regardless of the venue, one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in Kershaw has not fared so well here at Chase Field, going 0-4 in his last four starts in the desert with an un-Cy Young like 4.15 ERA.

Interestingly the Dodgers have gone ‘over’ in both of Kershaw’s starts since coming off of the Disabled List and the ‘over’ is 23-18-2 in all Los Angeles games this season despite the Dodgers as a team having a fine overall team ERA of 3.34, an indication that their offense has supported their pitchers well.

Meanwhile the ‘over’ is also 24-17-3 in all Arizona games, and in this case it is all because of pitching because the Snakes are dead last in baseball with a 4.78 ERA. The Diamondbacks are hoping they can change all of that with Anderson, but will he be able to match his debut effort vs. the Dodgers’ offense?

After all, the Dodgers are batting .271 vs. right-handed pitchers this season while averaging 4.59 runs per nine innings against them, and those figures have jumped to .290 and 4.66 runs over the last 10 games. Also, the ‘over’ is 16-7-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 24 games vs. the National League West.

Add this all up and we like these teams to sneak ‘over’ the modest total in Arizona on Saturday.

[gameodds]3/264205/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Dodgers, Diamondbacks ‘over’ 8 (+100)