MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, October 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

In what is the least attractive pitching matchup in the series so far, the offenses could push this game ‘over’ on Saturday night when Jake Peavy and the Boston Red Sox pay a visit to Joe Kelly and the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 3 of the World Series from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX, with the series now tied 1-1.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -127.

After the Red Sox took the series opener 8-1, the Cardinals evened things up with a 4-2 victory in Game 2 from Boston as Michel Wacha continued his great post-season, allowing two runs on a two-run homer by David Ortiz and only three hits in six innings.

Look for a higher scoring matchup in Game 3 tonight though with Peavy taking on Kelly. Peavy is actually Boston’s fourth starter, but he is being pressed into action tonight with Clay Buchholz nursing a fatigued arm, and that could be a boon to this ‘over”.

Peavy is the weakest link on either of these pitching staffs despite his deceptive 12-5 record during the regular season, as the posted Quality Starts in only half of his 10 starts with the Red Sox after being acquired from the Chicago White Sox and he finished the regular year with just a 4.16 ERA overall. His struggles have continued in the post-season as Peavy was bombed by the Detroit Tigers in Game 4 of the ALCS for seven earned runs in only three innings.

In fact, Peavy has struggled on the road all year as he is just 5-6 with a bloated 5.56 ERA and an ordinary 1.30 WHIP away from home combining the regular season and the playoffs. The Cardinals showed signs of busting out of their collective batting slump in Game 2 after finishing second in the National League in batting during the regular season at .269, and Peavy’s presence on the mound could allow St. Louis to fully return to that form.

As for the St. Louis starter Kelly, he was steady during the regular year while going 10-5 with a 2.69 ERA, but his peripherals lagged way behind as he had a 4.01 FIP, 4.19 xFIP and 0.4 WAR. His true mediocrity surfaced while losing Game 5 of the NLCS to the Los Angeles Dodgers as he was touched up for four earned runs on seven hits in five innings of a 6-4 loss.

Also do not forget that the Red Sox finished second in the American League in batting this season with a team batting average of .277, and although this is the first time that Kelly has ever started vs. Boston, his peripherals suggest that he should not be too hard to figure out by his second time through the lineup.

Thus look for a much higher scoring game for your MLB Picks than Game 2, as these teams go ‘over’ the total in Game 3 of the World Series from St. Louis on Saturday.


MLB Pick: Red Sox, Cardinals ‘over’ 7 (-127)

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