MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, October 19, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

It could be a higher scoring game than the relatively low posted total suggests on Saturday night when Max Scherzer and the Detroit Tigers look to avoid elimination when they pay a visit to Clay Buchholz and the Boston Red Sox in Game 6 of the ALCS from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -117.

The Red Sox have given themselves two chances to wrap up this ALCS at home by taking two of the middle three games of the series on the road, allowing Boston to come home with a 3-2 lead. With that being said, this series is far from over with the Tigers having Scherzer and Justin Verlander lined up for the last two games.

Scherzer is the favorite to take home the American League Cy Young Award, but Boston’s Buchholz has not been sharp during the post-season and the Tigers have a recent history of hitting him well, and that may be enough for this contest to sneak ‘over’ this fairly low number.

Buchholz was on his way to a dream season before going on the Disabled List for about three months and not coming off until September, and as it was, he did finish at 12-1 with a sparkling 1.74 ERA in 16 starts. However, Buchholz has not looked good at all in the playoffs while allowing a total of eight earned runs on 15 hits plus three walks in 11.2 innings.

That includes allowing five runs in 5.2 innings in Game 2, and that was not the first time that he struggled with the Detroit offense has Buchholz has now allowed 14 earned runs in 17.2 innings over his last three starts against the Tigers. It may very well be that the Red Sox rushed Buchholz back from the DL when they needed pitching help, as he has looked nowhere near as sharp as he did earlier in the season.

Now, Scherzer will probably win the Cy Young after going 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA during the regular season with 240 strikeouts in 214.1 innings against just 56 walks. That success has continued into the post-season, during which he has allowed three runs in 14 innings over two starts, including allowing one run on just two hits in seven innings with 13 strikeouts in Game 2 of this series.

You may recall that the Tigers wasted that great effort by Scherzer however as the poor Detroit bullpen blew a 5-1 lead in the final two innings, and that is always a concern when Scherzer pitches because, believe it or not., he does not have a Complete Game in his Major League career!

Take a struggling Buchholz and add in the virtual certainty that the Tigers’ bullpen will get involved here and the ‘over’ looks like the play at this total in Boston on Saturday.

[gameodds]3/247272/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Tigers, Red Sox ‘over’ 7 (-117)