MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, October 12, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

After a long night last night, we look for the two starting pitchers to both do their jobs Saturday and give the bullpens a break by shutting down the opposition when Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers pay a visit to Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 2 of the NLCS from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 4:07 ET in a game televised nationally on TBS.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 6 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -107.

The Dodgers are looking to even up the series after the Cardinals drew first blood in Game 1 by winning 3-2 in 13 innings with Carlos Beltran driving in all three runs in a well-pitched contest by both young Joe Kelly and veteran Zack Greinke. Kelly allowed two runs in six innings while Greinke was even better allowing two runs in eight before the bullpens took over.

While saving the pens is just a secondary concern at this time of the year, it is still an added bonus when starting pitchers are able to do so and both starters today are more than capable of allowing the pens to recover from that long evening on Friday while still allowing goose eggs on the scoreboard.

The Dodgers have the probable Cy Young Award winner on the bump in Kershaw, who is going on normal rest this time around after pitching on three days rest in the deciding game of the NLDS Monday, where he allowed just two unearned runs in six innings. Because those runs were unearned, Kershaw has still allowed just one earned run in 26 innings over his last four starts with 36 strikeouts in those 26 frames against only six walks!

Kershaw recorded a Quality Start in his only start here at Busch this season allowing two runs in six innings of an unfortunate 5-1 loss and he has now allowed two runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts! He also now gets to face a St. Louis lineup that has not been nearly as good vs. left-handers as it has vs. right-handers this year, batting just .232 vs. southpaws overall combining the regular season and playoffs including a woeful .225 here at home.

The Cardinals counter with their prized rookie Wacha, who looked like anything but while going 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 64.2 innings during the regular season and who then took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of Game 4 of the NLCS on the road at Pittsburgh with the season on the line as the Cardinals were down 1-2 in the series, and a solo homer by Pedro Alvarez ended up being the only hit he allowed in 7.1 innings of a humongous 2-1 victory.

This will be Wacha’s first start ever vs. the Dodgers, which should make him doubly tough to hit, and if you go back to the regular season, he has looked like a right-handed, well, Kershaw as of late as he has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and in eight of his 10 starts this year.

Add in the late afternoon start where shadows could potentially become an issue later on and both offenses can struggle against like last night in another ‘under’ in St. Louis on Saturday.

[gameodds]3/247231/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Dodgers, Cardinals ‘under’ 6 (-107)