MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, September 21, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 21, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

The National League Central race has now turned into an even tighter three-team race, and look for a low scoring affair on national television Saturday night when Homer Bailey and the Cincinnati Reds (88-66, 40-39 away) pay a visit to A.J. Burnett and the Pittsburgh Pirates (88-66, 49-30 home) in the second game of a huge three-game weekend series from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA at 7:05 ET in a game televised nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -127.

Just last week, it looked like the Central Division race would be a two-team race between the Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals with the Reds having to settle for the second wild card berth, but the Reds have now won four games in a row including overcoming a 5-2 ninth-inning deficit to win the series opener here last night to pull into a flat-footed tie with the Pirates at just two games behind St. Louis.

Last night’s game could have been the Game of the Year for the Reds as they took advantage of Pittsburgh starter Francisco Liriano being pulled after allowing three hits in eight innings and then a Pirates’ error to score three unearned runs in the ninth inning before Joey Votto hit the game-winning homer in the 10th in a game that, if nothing else, could have changed who gets home field advantage in a Wild Card Playoff game if neither of these clubs catch the Cardinals.

Cincinnati now looks to keep its momentum with Bailey on the hill, who is 11-10 but with a very good 3.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and his second no-hitter in as many seasons to his credit, and he is in excellent current form. Bailey has now allowed three runs or less in six straight starts while posting a sparkling 1.91 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with 40 strikeouts against just 10 walks in 42.1 innings over those outings.

Bailey is also a perfect two for two in Quality Starts vs. the Pirates this season with outstanding command against them, as he had 20 strikeouts vs. one measly walk in 12.1 innings in those starts. In fact, Bailey has had excellent command all season vs. all comers with 193 strikeouts against 46 walks in 198.1 innings.

However, even if Bailey maintains his fine form it may not necessarily mean a Cincinnati victory as the Reds should also have a tough time scoring off of Burnett, who comes off of a nice outing vs. the San Diego Padres where he allowed two runs on six hits with eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings of a hard-luck 2-0 loss.

Burnett’s 8-11 overall record this season is even more misleading than Bailey’s record, as A.J. has a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while yielding just a .236 batting average with an impressive 191 strikeouts in 176 innings vs. 63 walks. In fact, Burnett ranks eighth in the National League in strikeouts.

Thus, look for a well-pitched game by both side and an ‘under’ in the Steel City Saturday night.


MLB Pick: Reds, Pirates ‘under’ 7 (-127)

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