MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, September 14, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 14, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

It could be a low scoring game down south and on national television Saturday night when rookie Robbie Erlin and the San Diego Padres (67-79, 26-46 away) pay a visit to Kris Medlen and the Atlanta Braves (88-59, 51-21 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Turner Field in Atlanta, GA at 7:10 ET in a game carried live nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -116.

The Braves are well on there way to a National League East Division title with a commanding 10-game lead on the second place Washington Nationals, thanks to owning the best home record in all of baseball at 51-21. However, the 21st home loss came in a 4-3 upset to these Padres in the series opener last night with the bullpens deciding the outcome after the starters Ian Kennedy for the Padres and rookie David Hale for the Braves both pitched well.

The Padres are just trying to stay out of the cellar in the National League West as they currently in fourth place, just one game of the last place San Francisco Giants, who themselves are trying to avoid the dubious distinction of going from winning the World Series last year to finishing in last place this year.

The Braves look to bounce back from Friday’s loss with Medlen on the hill, who was on his way to the bullpen when Tim Hudson was lost for the season, necessitating Medlen to remain in the starting rotation. Well, Medlen has certainly made the most of his second chance as he has now allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts!

Furthermore, Medlen has incredibly yet to allow a run vs. the Padres, tossing 17 scoreless innings in two starts against them including one Complete Game shutout while allowing only 10 hits in those 17 innings with 15 strikeouts and not a single walk! He now tries to continue that amazing success vs. a San Diego lineup batting .239 vs. right-handed pitchers for the entire season and .225 against them over the last 10 games.

The Padres counter with the rookie southpaw Erlin, who may be just 2-2 with a 5.56 ERA but has allowed three runs or less in five of his six starts in the Major Leagues this year as his key numbers are skewed by his one bad outing where he surrendered nine runs in four innings, which would certainly put a hurt on anyone with just 34 innings pitched.

This will be Erlin’s first ever appearance against Atlanta and he has the good fortune to be facing a Braves’ team batting just .237 vs. left-handed pitchers over the entire season and a hideous .118 against them over the last 10 games!

Thus look for both pitchers to have enough success for this contest to stay ‘under’ on Saturday.


MLB Pick: Padres, Braves ‘under’ 7½ (-116)

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