MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, August 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

Two young pitchers both have a chance to succeed in what should be a low-scoring game Saturday night when Nathan Eovaldi and the Miami Marlins (43-71, 17-39 away) pay a visit to Alex Wood and the red-hot Atlanta Braves (71-45, 39-15 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Turner Field in Atlanta, GA at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +102.

The Braves are the hottest team in all of baseball as they enter this contest riding a 14-game winning streak, leaving them with a commanding 15½-game lead in the National League East over the second place and defending division champion Washington Nationals. The Marlins meanwhile are in last place with the worst record in the National League, 27 games behind the Braves.

Now, it is not particularly surprising that Atlanta is second in the National League in team ERA at 3.22, but the Marlins have also put together a nice young pitching staff that ranks sixth in the league with a 3.69 ERA. The problem for Miami has been hitting, as the Fish have scored a grand total of 12 runs during their current six-game losing streak that includes a 5-0 shutout loss in the series opener here last night.

That combination of fine young pitching and weak hitting has made Miami a prime ‘under’ team though at 61-45-8, 57.6 percent overall, including a lucrative 32-20-4, 61.5 percent on the road where Miami games have averaged just a combined 7.11 runs this season! In fact, 12 of the Marlins’ last 15 road games have had a total combined run output of seven runs or less.

Their starter Eovaldi has looked good since re-entering the Miami rotation on June 18th, as he is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA while limiting opponents to just a .224 average. Furthermore Eovaldi has allowed three runs or less in eight of his nine starts this year and he has also allowed two runs or less in three of his four career starts vs. the Braves.

Atlanta counters with the rookie southpaw Wood making his fifth Major League start. Wood was just mediocre in his first two starts, which both came vs. the New York Mets, but he apparently benefitted from those experiences as he has tossed back-to-back Quality Starts since then.

First Wood held the Colorado Rockies to three runs on six hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts against just one walk, and he then had his best Major League start to date vs. the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, allowing one run on only two hits in six innings. He now gets to face a Miami lineup batting a paltry .210 vs. left-handed pitchers while averaging a ridiculously low 1.59 runs per nine innings against them over the last 10 games.

Thus, look for runs to be at a premium for both sides as the Braves look to make it 15 wins in a row in Atlanta on Saturday.


MLB Pick: Marlins, Braves ‘under’ 7 (+102)

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