MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, August 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

There could be a rather surprising pitching duel in store on Saturday night when Erik Bedard and the Houston Astros (36-72, 18-35 away) pay a visit to Kyle Gibson and the Minnesota Twins (46-60, 24-27 home) in the second game of a three-game weekend series from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -106.

The Astros have the worst record in the Major Leagues in this, their first year ever in the American League, although they continue to give it their all every game such as annihilating the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday and having three of their last four losses be by one run. That includes the Twins taking the series opener 4-3 here last night in 13 innings after tying the game on a Brian Dozier hit in the ninth inning.

The Twins also seem a bit improved compared to the team that finished with the worst record in the American League last season at 66-96, although their offense has continued to be an issue as of late. Minnesota is 15½ games behind the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central, but at least it does not look like the Twins will repeat their last place performance of last year as they have a 6½-game lead over the cellar dwelling Chicago White Sox.

Houston starter Erik Bedard is 3-8 with a 4.28 ERA, but that is not an accurate gauge of his current form. You see, Bedard was 0-2 with a horrific 8.20 ERA following his May 1st start vs. the New York Yankees, but the veteran southpaw has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts since then including limiting the Toronto Blue Jays to one run on only three hits with six strikeouts vs. one walk in his most recent start.

Bedard has not faced the Twins this season but he did face them three times in the last two years, allowing a total of just three runs on 13 hits in 17 innings with 17 strikeouts over those outings. He is now catching a Minnesota lineup that is average only 3.40 run per game while batting a pathetic .216 overall over the last 10 games, including hitting an even .200 vs. southpaws during this time.

The Twins are very high on their youngster Gibson despite him being 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA over his first six Major League starts since being recalled, and with good reason since scouts love the fact that he has had very good strikeout-to-walk ratios at every level he has pitched at. Gibson has not been terrible at the big league level as his high ERA is skewed by one terrible outing vs. the New York Yankees in his second start.

Gibson has allowed exactly two earned runs in three of his six starts and he now gets a chance to take advantage of a weak Houston offense in his first career appearance vs. the Astros, who are batting only .225 overall vs. right-handed pitchers over this entire season while average a modest 3.71 runs per game against them.

Thus, look for the scoring to be scarce on both sides in what should be a rather handy ‘under’ in the Twin Cities on Saturday night.


MLB Pick: Astros, Twins ‘under’ 8½ (-106)

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