MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, June 29, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jun. 29, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

There could be sneaky value in the ‘under’ Saturday when two pitchers that you would not immediately associate with ‘unders’ square off as Joe Blanton and the Los Angeles Angels (37-43, 17-20 away) pay a visit to Jordan Lyles and the Houston Astros (30-50, 16-27 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX at 4:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +104.

The Angels have been probably the biggest busts in baseball this year given that they have one of the highest payrolls, but they may finally be starting to earn those paychecks as the Halos have won four straight games all on the road, taking the series opener here last night 4-2 after sweeping a three-game series from the Detroit Tigers.

Los Angeles has even won in a variety of ways during this win streak, with the first two wins being relative slugfests and the last two games being pitching duels, as last night’s contest was tied 1-1 entering the eighth inning. Now, at a passing glance, one would thing that the Angels will need to score a ton of run today to support the oft maligned Blanton, but that is not really the case.

Sure, the portly right-hander is 1-10 with a 5.26 ERA overall, but believe it or not, when Blanton held the Pittsburgh Pirates to just one earned run on six hits in 7.1 innings Sunday it marked his fifth Quality Start in his last six starts with a 3.57 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and a stellar 40 strikeouts vs. three walks over the six outings!

He could now have continued success vs. a Houston offense that is batting a disturbing .216 vs. right-handed pitchers at home while averaging a lowly 3.17 runs per nine innings against them here. Blanton has also been very good in his two starts vs. Houston this year, allowing a total of five runs and 11 hits in 14.2 innings with 17 strikeouts and not a single walk.

Of course, typical to the year that Blanton is having, he went 0-2 in those starts and there is no guarantee he would win today even if is remains in his current good form.

That is because the underrated Lyles has gone 4-2 pitching for a team that is 20 games under .500 with a 3.68 ERA with a nice ratio of his own with 49 strikeouts against 17 walks in 63.2 innings. Granted, Lyles was touched up for eight runs (five earned) and 10 hits in five innings by the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field last time out, but that snapped a streak where he had allowed two runs or less in seven consecutive starts over which he posted a 1.61 ERA.

He can return to that kind of form here as has allowed a total of five runs in his two starts vs. the Angels this year while posting a 1.22 WHIP and holding Angel batters to a .233 batting average with 11 strikeouts against three walks.

Thus, look for this game to remain in the single-digits on Saturday.


MLB Pick: Angels, Astros ‘under’ 9 (+108)

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