MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, May 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, May. 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

Expect another low scoring game Saturday similar to the series opener last night, as Juan Nicasio and the Colorado Rockies (27-21, 11-12 away) pay a visit to Barry Zito and the San Francisco Giants (19-27, 11-13 home) in the second game of a three-game series from AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 4:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -118.

These two teams were part of a three-way tie along with the Arizona Diamondbacks atop the National League West Division before Friday, but the Rockies prevailed 5-0 as Tyler Chatwood outdueled Tim Lincecum 5-0, leaving Colorado tied with victorious Arizona while the Giants are now one game back.

That series opener brought the ‘under’ to 5-0 in the last five Colorado games and also to 4-0-1 in the last five San Francisco games, and tonight’s pitching matchup seems conducive to another ‘under’ with Zito looking almost unhittable at home this year and Nicasio in fine current form.

You may recall that Zito was one of the biggest reasons for the World Champion Giants’ title run last season, as San Francisco as a team won is last 14 starts with three of those coming in the post-season. He was off to another great start this season but he has been rocked in each of his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 23 hits in 11.1 innings. However, both of those starts came on the road and Zito has very severe home vs. away splits this season.

In fact, he has been spectacular in his five home starts, going 3-0 with a scintillating 0.55 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while yielding a .217 batting average. That includes one start vs. these Rockies where he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing seven hits. That marked the fifth time in Zito’s last six home starts vs. Colorado that he allowed two runs or less.

Now while the Rockies have had one of the better offenses in baseball this season, their worst split has been vs. left-handed pitchers on the road, as they are batting .245 while averaging only 2.80 runs per nine innings in that situation.

Nicasio is 4-1 for Colorado, but while he has a 4.47 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, he has been pitching better than that as of late. Nicasio has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts including a gem vs. these Giants in Denver on Sunday where he tossed six scoreless innings while allowing just three hits with five strikeouts against one walk.

That marked the second Quality Start for Nicasio in three career starts vs. the Giants and he is catching a San Francisco lineup that has scored only 15 runs in the last six games and is batting a measly .234 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last five contests.

Thus, look for the recent ‘under’ patterns of both of these teams to continue for at least one more game.


MLB Pick: Rockies, Giants ‘under’ 8½ (-118)

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