MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, May 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, May. 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

Runs may be hard to come by Saturday night when Anibal Sanchez and the Detroit Tigers (23-17, 10-10 away) pay a visit to Justin Grimm and the Texas Rangers (27-15, 12-5 home) in the third game of a four-game series from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET in a game televised regionally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

These teams have split the first two games of this series, with the Rangers surprisingly bombing Justin Verlander to take the opener 10-4 Thursday before the Tigers won a 2-1 pitching duel last night. That result has been more typical of these teams this season, and while we do not expect the teams to combine for three runs again, we do expect them to stay in the single-digits.

These teams are usually most associated with potent offenses, but this season they both have solid starting pitching. In fact, Texas ranks second in the American League with a 3.42 team ERA, just a shade behind the Chicago White Sox (3.41) for the league lead, while Detroit ranks fifth with a 3.58 staff ERA while boasting three of the top 10 pitchers in the Major Leagues in FIP.

That includes the Major League leader in Saturday starter Sanchez, whose 1.45 FIP leads Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals in second at 1.80 by a rather sizable margin. Sanchez obviously deserved better than a 4-3 record, as he has a microscopic 2.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP to go along with his whopping 66 strikeouts in 52.2 innings compared to only 12 walks and one home run allowed!

Sanchez has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his eight starts with the last seven being official Quality Starts, and he has actually allowed only two earned runs or less in seven of his eight outings. The Detroit bullpen blew some leads for him earlier on, but that unit has been much better as of late with a 2.64 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .205 average over the last 10 games.

Texas starter Grimm had a nice start to this season while going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in three April starts, but he has been bombed in his last two May outings. However, both of those starts came on the road and his best starts have come at home. Grimm may be just 1-1 at Rangers Ballpark, but he has a 2.84 ERA and an impressive 18 strikeouts in 12.2 innings in those starts. He has the support of a Texas bullpen ranked sixth in the AL in ERA.

Finally the Rangers have been one of the better ‘under’ teams in the league at 25-15-2 and look for that pattern to continue with another ‘under’ on Saturday.


MLB Pick: Tigers, Rangers ‘under’ 9½ (-105)

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