MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, July 7, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jul. 7, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

They may not be household names, but two under-the-radar pitchers could produce an ‘under’ Monday in the desert when Tom Koehler and the Miami Marlins (43-45, 16-23 away) pay a visit to fellow young right-hander Chase Anderson and the Arizona Diamondbacks (37-53, 15-30 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 9:40 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -116.

The Marlins has some fairly high hopes this season relative to their drab seasons most recently, but things started to go downhill when Jose Fernandez was lost for the year to Tommy John surgery and after initially still hanging in soon after losing one of the best pitchers in the National League, Miami is starting to collapse and has fallen below .500, although the Marlins did win their last two games vs. the Cardinals in St. Louis this past weekend.

The Diamondbacks meanwhile rather surprisingly have the worst record in the National League mainly due to their inability to win here at home, where they are inexplicably 15-30, so it may not be the best of news that they are returning home for the first game following a nine-game road trip where they lost seven of the last nine games.

Koehler is only 6-6 for the Marlins, but in reality he is quietly having a solid season with a 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 82 strikeouts vs. 39 walks, and he is in excellent current form as he has allowed only four runs and 14 hits on his last three starts with 21 strikeouts in 19 innings against four walks.

Koehler also fared well in his only start vs. the Diamondbacks when he allowed one run and only three hits in six innings with seven strikeouts despite a hard-luck 1-0 loss, and he now gets to face a struggling Diamondbacks’ lineup that is averaging only 2.90 runs over the last 10 games while batting just .229 overall.

Furthermore Koehler has the support of an improving Miami bullpen that has posted a 2.76 ERA over 16.2 innings in the last five games.

The Diamondbacks are going nowhere this season and it appears they are ready to take a look at some young pitchers after trading veteran Brandon McCarthy over the weekend. That youth movement includes Anderson, who had sparkling numbers in Triple-A when he was recalled on May 11th, and despite some growing pains he has mostly acquitted himself well at the big league level as he is 5-4 for a last place team with a 3.91 ERA.

In fact Anderson has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his nine starts including allowing two earned runs or less in six of them, as his overall ERA is skewed by allowing 11 earned runs in 11 innings over his other two starts.

Therefore, expect both pitchers to do their parts in an ‘under’ from Phoenix on Monday.

MLB Pick: Marlins, Diamondbacks ‘under’ 9 (-116)

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