MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, June 9, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jun. 9, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

Expect a relatively low scoring game on national TV Monday night when veteran right-hander Dan Haren and the Los Angeles Dodgers (33-31, 20-12 away) pay a visit to southpaw Tony Cingrani and the Cincinnati Reds (29-32, 15-15 home) at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET in this week’s installment of ESPN Monday Night Baseball.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -119.

Both of these teams have rather disappointing records in the early going. The Dodgers did take two out of three from the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field over the weekend following a rain-shortened win on Sunday, but that only leaves the preseason World Series favorites from Los Angeles at two games over .500 and 9½ games behind the San Francisco Giants while in second place in the National League West.

The Reds also won their weekend series taking two out of three here at home over the last place Philadelphia Phillies, taking the last two games after Cole Hamels bested Cincinnati ace Johnny Cueto on Friday. Still, more was expected from the Reds this year than being three games under .500 at this stage of the season and 7½ games behind the surprising first place Milwaukee Brewers while in third place in the NL Central.

This is the 33-year-old Haren’s first year with the Dodgers and he has been mostly solid if not spectacular, going 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA and an excellent ratio of 52 strikeouts vs. just 12 walks in 74.2 innings. Granted he was not particularly sharp while losing to the Chicago White Sox last time out allowing four runs on six hits in six innings, but that marked just the second time in his 12 starts this year that he allowed more than three earned runs, so he should be fine.

He can also get some help from a struggling Cincinnati offense here as the Reds are 12th in the National League with their .237 team batting average and they are 13th in the NL and 28th in the majors in runs scored at a mere 3.49 per game overall. Playing in the launching pad that is Great American Ball Park has not helped either with the Reds batting .231 and averaging only 3.63 runs at home, and that batting average has dipped all the way to .216 the last 10 games overall.

Now, Cingrani was one of the most underrated left-handers in the National League last season when he posted a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a .196 batting average allowed along with an excellent ratio of 120 strikeouts vs. 43 walks in 104.2 innings despite just a 7-4 record. Unfortunately he has been nowhere near as good this year while going 2-6 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP after suffering his fourth loss in as many starts vs. the Giants last Wednesday.

However, Cingrani has a very good chance to regain some good form here vs. a Dodger lineup that has been struggling mightily vs. left-handed pitching while batting .206 vs. southpaws over the entire season, an average that drops to a disgusting .173 vs. lefties over the last 10 games! Cingrani has not faced the Dodgers this season, but he was brilliant in his only start against them last year allowing just one hit in seven scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts.

Thus, expect runs to be at a premium for both sides in an ‘under’ from Cincinnati on ESPN Monday.


MLB Pick: Dodgers, Reds ‘under’ 8 (-119)

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