MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, October 14, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

After a couple of low scoring games in the first two games of this series, look for a higher scoring affair Monday night when Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals pay a visit to Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLCS from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on TBS.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at +100.

These have not looked like two of the best offenses in the National League, which they were coming into this NLCS, with the Cardinals winning two well-pitched games so far 3-2 in 13 innings in Game 1 and 1-0 in Game 2. To be fair though, each team has also trotted out very good pitchers to the mound in each of the first two games.

That seems to be the case again on the Cardinals’ side for tonight’s Game 3 as they are sending out their ace Wainwright, who went 19-9 with a 2.94 ERA during the regular season and then allowed two runs over 16 innings in two starts during the NLDS vs. the Pirates. However, it is the presence of Ryu on the mound for Los Angeles that has us liking the ‘over’ at this fairly low posted total in this spot.

Ryu had good numbers during the season as he went 14-8 with a 3.00 ERA in 192 innings in his first year in the Major Leagues after coming over from Japan. However, those 192 innings may be the story as Ryu did not finish the year strong while dealing with back issues that may have been the result of his heaviest season workload ever. He was then not sharp at all in Game 3 of the NLDS vs. the Atlanta Braves allowing four earned runs on six hits in just three innings.

Now the Dodgers seem confident enough to trot Ryu back out to the mound in their biggest game in many years, as they would not figure to come back from an 0-3 series hole vs. a team of the Cardinals’ caliber, but it seems pretty obvious that Ryu is not what he was earlier in the season, and while St. Louis has had trouble with left-handed pitchers this year, facing one that is not in perfect health certainly helps the Cards’ cause.

If the Redbirds get to Ryu as well as we expect, then Wainwright may not even need to give up that much for this game to sneak ‘over’ the total, which is a good thing given how great he looked in the series vs. the Pirates. Besides, as great as the St. Louis pitching has been, it seems extremely difficult to keep this Dodgers’ offense shut down for long, especially returning home here while in desperation mode.

After all, the Dodgers have hit .262 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging 4.19 runs per nine innings against them over the entire year combining the regular season and playoffs, and those numbers vs. righties have risen a bit to .266 and 4.61 runs over the last 10 games.

With all of this in mind, look for Game 3 to break the pattern of the first two games with enough runs being scored to go ‘over’ the low posted total in Los Angeles on Monday.

[gameodds]3/247232/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Dodgers, Cardinals ‘over’ 6½ (+100)