MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, September 23, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Sep. 23, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

With the MLB season now in its final week, there could be a low scoring game Monday night between two teams just waiting for the season to end when J.A. Happ and the Toronto Blue Jays (71-84, 33-44 away) pay a visit to Jose Quintana and the Chicago White Sox (61-94, 35-41 home) as the two southpaws battle in a make-up game of an earlier rainout from U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -101.

Both of these teams could hit a lull emotionally here after coming off of series vs. division leaders. The White Sox lost two out of three to the Detroit Tigers, salvaging the final game Sunday after incredibly blowing a 6-0 lead in the ninth inning Saturday before losing 7-6 in 12 innings. It is hard to imagine Chicago getting too excited about this makeup vs. a fellow also-ran, as the White Sox are going to finish with the second worst record in the American League.

The Blue Jays have been the bigger disappointment between these two teams as they were actually favored to win the American League East before the season, but are instead on the opposite side of the spectrum bringing up the rear. Toronto lost two out of three games over the weekend to the team that did win the East Division, the Boston Red Sox.

One thing that can be said about this matchup, however, is that both starting pitchers are in very good form. In fact Quintana would have a much better record than 8-6 for the season if he was not pitching for the team that has scored the fewest runs in the American League. That is because Quintana has a nice 3.49 ERA with a very good ratio of 154 strikeouts vs. 53 walks in 185.2 innings and he has allowed three earned runs or less in 24 of his last 30 starts!

He should now benefit from facing a dead Toronto lineup that is batting just .236 vs. left-handed pitchers over the entire season and that has seen that average plummet to .214 while averaging a putrid 1.93 runs per nine innings against them over the last 10 games.

As for Happ, he has not been as consistent as Quintana while going 4-6 with a 4.82 ERA overall, but he certainly appears to be in a good form cycle with this season nearly reaching its end. Happ has now allowed three earned runs or less in four straight starts after limiting the New York Yankees to one run and four hits in seven innings last time out.

Just like Quintana, Happ is also looking to take advantage of a struggling lineup as the White Sox are batting .238 vs. lefties for the season while averaging a mere 3.65 runs per game against them, and that average vs. southpaws drops to a pathetic .196 over the last 10 games.

Add this all up and expect a low scoring game in the Windy City on Monday.


MLB Pick: Blue Jays, White Sox ‘under’ 7½ (-101)

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