MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, September 9, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

Two teams that have a recent history of playing low scoring games against each other square off on national television Monday night when C.C. Sabathia and the New York Yankees (76-67, 32-36 away) pay a visit to Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles (76-66, 41-30 home) in the first game of a crucial four-game series from Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD at 7:05 ET in a game televised live nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -109.

This is a critical series for both of these teams in the wild card chase, which looks like the only way either of these clubs will make the playoffs with the Orioles now 9½ games behind the first place Boston Red Sox in the American League East and the Yankees 10 games back.

However, Baltimore is only two games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the last wild card spot after winning three out of four games vs. the Chicago White Sox this past weekend, and the Yankees are still alive at 2½ games behind Tampa Bay despite needing to salvage the last game vs. the Red Sox Sunday to avoid a four-game sweep at home in the Bronx.

This has been a tight season series this year with Baltimore holding a narrow 8-7 edge in 15 meetings so far, but what really sticks out is the fact that the ‘under’ is 10-3-2 in those meetings, bringing the ‘under’ to 13-4-2 in the last 19 head-to-head encounters going back to their playoff matchup last season!

The Orioles now look to get a jump on this series and draw closer to the Rays with the often under-appreciated Chris Tillman on the mound. With relatively little fanfare, Tillman is currently 15-5 on the year, putting him in a tie for the second most wins in the American League.

Granted Tillman had a bumpy start vs. the Cleveland Indians in his last outing allowing four earned runs on five hits plus five walks in 5.1 innings, but he had allowed two runs or less in four of his previous five outings so he should be just fine for this appearance.

While Tillman has not always pitched well vs. the Yankees in his career, going 3-4 with a terrible 7.43 ERA against them, keep in mind that he has just started putting things together and fulfilling his vast potential over the last year or so and his only start vs. New York here at Camden Yards was a good one this season as he allowed only two runs on five hits with six strikeouts in six innings of a 4-2 victory.

Now Sabathia is arguably having the worst season of his career despite owning a winning 13-11 record, as his 4.86 ERA and 1.35 WHIP are much higher than we are accustomed to seeing from him. However, to his credit he has started to come around just in time for the Yankee playoff push with four Quality Starts in his last six outings, which has added to his past reputation of being a good “big-game” pitcher.

Most recently he held the Chicago White Sox to three runs on only five hits on 7.1 innings on Wednesday, and the veteran southpaw is facing a Baltimore lineup that had not fared as well vs. left-handed pitchers (.249 average, 4.20 runs per nine innings) as it has vs. right-handers (.264, 5.04 runs per nine) this season.

Add this all up and look for the success of the ‘under’ in this head-to-head series to continue for at least one more game on Monday.

[gameodds]3/242852/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Yankees, Orioles ‘under’ 8½ (-109)