MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, August 26, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

Two pitchers that both have disappointing numbers overall this season both have a chance to pitch well Monday night in their second straight start vs. tonight’s respective opponents when Phil Hughes and the New York Yankees (69-61, 31-34 away) pay a visit to R.A. Dickey and the Toronto Blues Jays (58-73, 31-32 home) in the opening game of a three-game series at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:07 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +102.

The Yankees salvaged the final game of a three-game series vs. the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday to avoid a sweep as the Bronx Bombers try to stay in the playoff hunt. New York is in fourth place in the American League East but a reasonable seven games behind the first place Boston Red Sox and just 3½ games behind the Oakland Athletics for the second wild card spot, although there are a couple of other teams in between those two.

The only team that the Yankees are ahead of in the division is these last place Blue Jays, who were actually the favorites to win the division before the season by instead trail the Yanks by 11½ games, making a last-place finish a virtual certainty. Toronto even lost two out of three to the team with the worst record in all of baseball this weekend in the Houston Astros, and the Jays had to score late to salvage a 2-1 win Sunday.

Now Phil Hughes is just 4-12 for the Yankees with a 4.88 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, but he did pitch well vs. the Jays in the Bronx in his last start Tuesday allowing only two runs on seven hits in six innings of a 3-2 win where he did not get a decision, and that marked the second straight Quality Start for Hughes after he limited the Los Angeles Angels to three runs in six innings in his previous start.

We are not ready to say Hughes has turned a corner just yet, but we do like his chances of pitching well again tonight vs. a Toronto team that has apparently mailed this season in and is returning home from a 2-8 road trip. The Blue Jays averaged just 3.30 runs on that 10-game trip including scoring a total of 10 runs in three games vs. the terrible Houston staff.

One of the reasons the Jays were preseason favorites to win the division was a supposedly improved pitching staff that included the addition of reigning National League Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey. Unfortunately, Dickey has not come close to matching that career year while going 9-12 with a 4.49 ERA for Toronto.

Dickey does come off of a Complete Game vs. the Yankees though albeit in a 4-2 loss where he allowed six hits and struck out nine. He actually allowed only two runs over the first seven innings and was locked in a 2-2 tie before allowing what turned out to be a game-winning two-run homer to Alfonso Soriano.

A repeat of each pitcher’s last performance should be good enough to keep this contest ‘under’ on Monday.

[gameodds]3/242000/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Yankees, Blue Jays ‘under’ 8½ (+102)