MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, August 12, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

There may not be too much scoring on Monday Night Baseball this week when Garrett Richards and the Los Angeles Angels (53-63, 23-31 away) pay a visit to Hiroki Kuroda and the New York Yankees (59-57, 31-26 home) in the opening game of a four-game series from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY at 7:05 ET in a contest televised nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons and face double-digit division deficits, but at least the Yankees have an excuse with so many superstars on the Disabled List. They also enter this series on a positive note after taking two out of three from the Detroit Tigers this past weekend, snapping Detroit’s 12-game winning streak in the opening game of that series.

The Yankees are still in fourth place in the American League East and 10 games behind the first place Boston Red Sox, and even with one of their superstars Alex Rodriguez back in the lineup for now pending the appeal of his suspension, the Yanks are still not hitting much as the scant 3.10 runs per game they are averaging the last 10 games is actually considerably less than the already low 3.79 runs they are averaging for the season.

That means that New York needs pitching to win these days, and the good news is that it has the right man on the mound tonight in Kuroda. With C.C. Sabathia having a miserable season, Kuroda must now be considered the Yankee ace and deservedly so, as he is second in the American League behind only Felix Hernandez in ERA at 2.45 after limiting the White Sox to three runs in seven innings last Tuesday.

Kuroda also has a 1.05 WHIP and 103 strikeouts vs. 28 walks, and if you like consistency, you will love the fact that he has allowed three runs or less in 20 of his 23 starts this season, making his 10-7 record farcical. He should pitch well again tonight given his 2.67 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .211 batting average allowed in five career starts vs. the Angels, who are batting only .218 vs. right-handers the last five games, but he may again need to sweat out run support for the win.

The Angels have probably been the biggest under-achievers in baseball this year given their huge payroll as the are in fourth place and 14 games behind the division leading Texas Rangers in the American League West while 10 games under .500. They also missed a chance to gain some nice momentum when they blew a 5-0 lead and lost 6-5 to the Cleveland Indians on Sunday, failing to complete a three-game sweep.

Their Monday starter Richards is just 3-4 with a 4.20 ERA, but he was probably bothered earlier on by the injury that landed him on the Disabled List and he has actually pitched quite well in his three starts since being re-activated, posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in those outings with 13 strikeouts against five walks in 18 innings.

With Richards facing a Yankee offense batting a horrific .203 vs. right-handers the last 10 games, he should also do his part to keep this game ‘under’ on Monday.

[gameodds]3/241203/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Angels, Yankees ‘under’ 8 (-105)