MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, August 5, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Aug. 5, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

In a pitching rematch of a game that produced a very easy ‘under’ last week, do not be surprised if there is a similar result on Monday night when Martin Perez and the Texas Rangers (62-50, 29-26 away) pay a visit to Jerome Williams and the Los Angeles Angels (51-59, 30-29 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 10:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at +100.

The disappointing Angels blew a ninth-inning lead while losing 6-5 to the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday after winning the first two games of that series, leaving a team with one of the highest payrolls in baseball in fourth place in the American League West and 12½ games behind the first place Oakland Athletics.

The second place Rangers meanwhile took two out of three from those division leading Athletics in Oakland, leaving them just 2½ games back. The news is not all good for Texas though as Nelson Cruz has accepted his 50-game suspension for his involvement in the Biogenesis clinic scandal. Cruz would be eligible to return for the playoffs if the Rangers make the post-season, should they elect to activate him.

Williams and Perez hooked up in Arlington last Wednesday with the Rangers prevailing 2-1 and the two teams combining for 13 total hits. Whether or not the Rangers can prevail again in Anaheim is debatable, but we do not expect both offenses to perform that much better.

Williams has been erratic this season going 5-7 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, but perhaps his numbers would be better if he faced the Rangers more often. He has now made two starts against Texas and has allowed a grand total of three runs in 14.2 innings, and that was with Cruz in the Rangers’ lineup.

On top of that, Williams is facing a slumping offense that is uncharacteristically averaging just 3.95 runs per nine innings on the road overall this season and must now try to replaces Cruz’s 27 home runs and 76 RBI the rest of the way.

The Rangers have always been high on Perez, and although he has gone through some growing pains while going 3-3 with a respectable 3.93 ERA, the southpaw will then have outings like he had last time out when he allowed one run on only four hits in 7.1 innings that show why he is so highly regarded. He now gets to again face an Angel lineup that is batting only .235 over left-handed pitchers over the entire season.

While this may not be a carbon copy of the 2-1 final when these pitchers met last week, we are still anticipating another rather safe ‘under’ on Monday.


MLB Pick: Rangers, Angels ‘under’ 8½ (+100)

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