MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, July 8, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

Runs could be hard to come by in a pitcher’s ballpark Monday night when Tyler Chatwood and the Colorado Rockies (42-47, 16-26 away) pay a visit to Edinson Volquez and the San Diego Padres (40-49, 25-18 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 10:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.

Such is the state of the National League West right now that although these teams are five games under .500 and nine games under .500 respectively, both the are still in the pennant race! In fact, the Padres return home on a miserable nine-game losing streak after getting swept on the road by the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox, but while they are now in last place, they remain a manageable 7½ games behind the first place Arizona Diamondbacks.

San Diego should be happy to be home though where it is actually seven games over .500 at 25-18, as opposed to an awful 15-31 on the road. The Padres now get a chance to make some headway on a seven-game home stand leading into next week’s All-Star break.

Volquez could be a key member of the Pads the rest of the way as he seems to have rediscovered the fine form he had when he was with the Cincinnati Reds. Granted he is still just 6-6 with a 5.26 ERA, but that is mainly because he was so erratic over the first two months of the season. He has gained some consistency lately though as Volquez has allowed three earned runs or less in five straight starts after limiting the Boston Red Sox to one run in six innings last out.

Unfortunately, even if Volquez maintains that form here, and there is really no reason to believe that he will not vs. a Colorado offense that is only averaging 2.90 runs while batting .217 over the last 10 games without the injured Troy Tulowitzki, there is still no guarantee that the Padres will score enough runs to support him, given that they are averaging 3.93 runs while batting only .236 in their spacious home stadium this year.

And Chatwood is certainly capable of shutting down the San Diego offense. Granted Chatwood comes off of possibly his worst start of the season when he was lit up for six runs on 11 hits in five innings by the Los Angeles Dodgers, but that snapped an incredible streak were he had allowed two runs or less in eight straight starts and he is still 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA, so he should be able to bounce back vs. a weaker offense.

He is facing a Padres’ attack that is batting .223 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while averaging 3.18 runs per nine innings against them during that time, so look for both starters to do their parts in keeping this contest ‘under’ on Monday.

[gameodds]3/238282/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Rockies, Padres ‘under’ 7½ (-120)