MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, July 1, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jul. 1, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

There could be an interesting pitching duel between the young and the old in South Beach on Monday when veteran Jason Marquis and the San Diego Padres (40-42, 15-24 away) pay a visit to super-rookie Jose Fernandez and the Miami Marlins (29-51, 17-24 home) in the final game of a four-game weekend wraparound series from Marlins Ballpark in Miami, FL at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

While the Marlins have been playing a little bit better baseball while winning five of their last six games and going 13-7 over their last 20 contests, they are still in last place in the National League East 18 games behind the first place Atlanta Braves and they still have the worst winning percentage in the Major Leagues at .362.

The problem of course has been offense as Miami is dead last in the Major Leagues in runs scored (3.24 per game), home runs (47) and team OPS (.626) while ranking second to last in team batting average (.232). The pitching has been much more respectable and one consistent highlight for the Marlins throughout this season has been the pitching of 21-year-old Cuban rookie Jose Fernandez less than two years after being selected in the first round of the 2011 draft.

Now it is only natural for someone from Cuba to be largely popular in Miami, but Fernandez is the real deal. In fact he has been nothing short of remarkable while posting a 2.98 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while limiting batters to a .203 batting average, and he has shown tremendous command for someone so young with 84 strikeouts in 84.2 innings against only 32 walks.

The scary part for the rest of the National League is that Fernandez has only gotten better as the year has gone on as he has now allowed two earned runs or less in five consecutive starts. His 4-4 record is a travesty considering how great he has pitched, obviously a by-product of pitching for the worst offense in baseball, but he could still be and deserves to be the Marlins’ representative in the All-Star game in a couple of weeks.

Meanwhile the Padres are quietly making a playoff push, as a team that was in last place in the National League West just a few weeks ago is now just 2½ games behind the first place Diamondbacks and one-half game behind the second place Rockies in the National League West. Of course, it helps that Arizona is the only team in the division that is over .500.

Marquis provided a steadying influence to the San Diego pitching staff after coming over from the Minnesota Twins in mid-season last year and he has been solid this season while going 9-3 with a 3.99 ERA. Granted he was rouged up for six runs in 4.1 innings by the Philadelphia Phillies in his last start, but he had allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his previous 11 starts so he should bounce back just fine.

Marquis also tossed a gem in his first start vs. the Marlins this year, hurling eight scoreless innings while allowing five hits and walking one May 8th back in San Diego. He has now allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last four career starts vs. Miami.

When you add in that the San Diego offense is batting only .226 against right-handed pitchers over the last 10 game, both pitchers figure to be successful in a probable ‘under’ on Monday.


MLB Pick: Padres, Marlins ‘under’ 7½ (-113)

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