MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, June 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jun. 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

There could be a good old fashioned pitchers’ duel in store at Chavez Ravine Monday night when Wade Miley and the Arizona Diamondbacks (35-28, 18-14 away) pay a visit to former Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers (27-35, 18-18 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA at 10:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -123.

The Diamondbacks are still in first place in the National League West, but they now have just a 1½-game lead over the World Champion San Francisco Giants after losing at home to the Giants Saturday and Sunday. Arizona has been pitching reasonably well with a team ERA of 3.87, but the Diamondbacks have had their problems offensively vs. left-handed pitching, which bodes well for Kershaw.

The Dodgers have continued to disappoint as they are in last place and 7½ games behind the Diamondbacks while sitting at eight games under .500. The Dodger starting pitching has been fine with a collective 3.70 ERA, but Los Angeles is only averaging 3.50 runs per game overall while batting a modest .248 as a team.

Luckily the Dodgers may not need to score too many runs in support of Kershaw, who is having another Cy Young caliber season despite a 5-4 record as he has a miniscule 1.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a .192 batting average allowed, with 91 strikeouts in 93.1 innings against only 26 walks. Kershaw has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his 13 starts this year and even there he allowed a manageable four runs in seven innings vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.

Kershaw also deserves better than a 7-6 career record vs. the Diamondbacks, as he sports a 2.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 16 starts against them while holding Arizona batters to a .206 batting average with 111 strikeouts in 98.1 innings. Kershaw is two for two in Quality Starts vs. Arizona this year including allowing one earned run on five hits in seven innings the last time he faced them right here in Los Angeles.

The Diamondbacks are batting .243 vs. left handed pitchers this season compared to .264 vs. right-handers, and they are averaging just 3.50 runs per nine innings vs. southpaws on the road.

Fellow southpaw Miley was a Rookie of the Year candidate last season while going 16-11 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 144 strikeouts against 37 walks, and he was off to another good start this year before hitting a wall, although he did get a much needed win and Quality Start while allowing three runs in 6.2 inning vs. the Cardinals in his last start Wednesday.

That could be just the kick-start Miley needs to regain last year’s form and he did pitch well vs. these Dodgers here at Chavez Ravine on May 8th, allowing only two runs on seven hits in 7.2 innings without walking a single batter. Miley is catching a Dodger lineup batting .210 vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while averaging a mere 2.92 runs per game against them.

Thus, look for both pitchers to have success and for runs to be at a premium in an ‘under’ on Monday.


MLB Pick: Diamondbacks, Dodgers ‘under’ 6½ (-123)

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