MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, May 20, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, May. 20, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

Look for a good old fashioned pitching duel on Monday night when the ultra-impressive Shelby Miller and the St. Louis Cardinals (28-15, 14-7 away) pay a visit to veteran Jason Marquis and the San Diego Padres (20-23, 12-10 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, Ca at 10:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +110.

The Cardinals come into this contest owning the best record in the National League at 28-15, and they are just one-half game behind the 29-15 Texas Rangers for the best record in all of baseball. The reason why St. Louis is off to such a great start is obvious as it owns the best staff ERA in all of baseball at 3.18.

In fact, all five regular Cardinal starters all have an ERA of 3.58 or better and no St. Louis starter has been more impressive than the rookie Miller. He should also relish making his first career start at Petco Park, which is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the National League.

Miller is 5-2 in eight starts overall with a scintillating 1.40 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with the league batting a mere .182 against him. He has also displayed uncanny command for a 22-year-old with 57 strikeouts compared to just 12 walks in 51.1 innings. Miller made a quick ascent up the minor league ranks and into the majors after getting selected in the first round of the 2009 MLB Draft, and it is easy to see why.

Miller actually debuted in the majors last season just three years after getting drafted and he gave a nice glimpse of things to come over six games including one start, posting a 1.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while yielding a .184 batting average with 16 strikeouts against only four walks in 13.2 innings. Not only is he now pitching in this spacious ballpark for the first time, but he is also making his first start ever vs. the Padres which is usually to the advantage of the pitcher.

The Padres are fourth in the National League West Division, but they are only 4½ games behind the first place Arizona Diamondbacks and they won their last two games vs. the Washington Nationals to gain a split in that four-game series after dropping their first two games.

The veteran former St. Louis Cardinal Marquis will be facing his former team tonight, and he has been solid so far this season going 5-2 with a 3.49 ERA, allowing three earned runs or less in seven of his eight starts and two earned runs or less in six of them. Marquis is also 4-0 in his last four starts, most recently beating the Baltimore Orioles while allowing two runs on seven hits on Wednesday.

Should Marquis be in need of relief, it is reassuring to know that the Padres have one of the better bullpens in baseball ranking fourth in the National League with a 2.96 ERA while possessing a collective 1.16 WHIP and holding opponents to a .221 batting average.

Thus, look for a low scoring affair in San Diego on Monday.


MLB Pick: Nationals, Padres ‘under’ 7 (+110)

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