MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, July 11, 2014 5:12 AM UTC

Friday, Jul. 11, 2014 5:12 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.


There could be a nice pitching duel between two young right-handed pitchers Friday night when Hector Noesi and the Chicago White Sox (44-49, 20-28 away) pay a visit to Corey Kluber and the Cleveland Indians (45-46, 27-18 home) in the first game of a three-game weekend series from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Bet365 is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -125.

The Indians just salvaged a split of a four-game series vs. the New York Yankees by winning the final game 9-3 last night with all nine runs coming in the seventh and eighth innings mostly off of the New York bullpen. That leaves the Tribe in third place in the American League Central and 7½ games behind the first place Detroit Tigers despite still being one game below the .500 mark.

The White Sox also come off of a four-game split with the Boston Red Sox although it was an empty feeling split, as Chicago took the first two games but lost the last two with a great chance to win the series. Thus the White Sox remain two games behind the Indians and 9½ games behind the Tigers in the Central Division, although Chicago has exceeded expectations by being only five games below .500 approaching the All-Star break.

The Cleveland starter Kluber was a relatively well-kept secret in the mainstream earlier this year although Sabremetricians were aware of his ability after posting a 2.7 WAR last year, but now the world has been introduced to him and he just missed making the All-Star team as he lost the fan vote to a pitching in the opposite dugout tonight, Chicago’s Chris Sale.

It has become hard to ignore Kluber after allowing two runs or less in each of his last five starts and that includes allowing a grand total of two runs on 14 hits in 22 innings over his last three outings with 23 strikeouts vs. three walks! That leaves Kluber at a deceptive 8-6 on the season as he has a 2.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 137 strikeouts vs. 30 walks in 125.2 innings, and most impressively he is now fourth in the majors with a 3.5 WAR.

Kluber has been brilliant in his two starts vs. the White Sox this season allowing a total of three runs on 11 hits in 15.1 innings with 19 strikeouts vs. two walks, and 13 of those strikeouts came in eight innings the last time he faced them. He is facing a Chicago lineup batting just .197 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games.

Noesi is just 3-6 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, but he has allowed two runs or less in two of his last three starts including a gem last time out vs. Seattle when he tossed 6.2 scoreless innings while allowing five hits with five strikeouts.

Furthermore Noesi has faced the Indians twice in his career and allowed exactly one run on five hits on each occasion. The most recent of those starts came this year in Chicago on May 28th, when he went 7.1 innings and struck out five while not walking a single batter. 

With all of this in mind, go ‘under’ the total in Cleveland on Friday.

MLB Pick: White Sox, Indians ‘under’ 8 (-125)

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