MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, June 13, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Jun. 13, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

One of the best pitchers in all of baseball combined with a weak offense at home could help key an ‘under’ Friday night when Nick Tepesch and the Texas Rangers (32-34, 16-15 away) pay a visit to former Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez and those Seattle Mariners (34-32, 14-18 home) at Safeco Field in Seattle, WA at 10:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.

Surprisingly it is the Mariners that lead the Rangers by two games in the American League West as Seattle is in third place and six games behind the first place Oakland Athletics despite just getting swept three games at home by the New York Yankees. While it is encouraging that the Mariners are still two games over .500 at this stage of the season, they are only 14-18 here at home as opposed to an unexpected 20-14 on the road.

The Rangers have simply had trouble staying healthy while leading the world in stints on the Disabled List this year, so in that sense, being only two games below .500 while in fourth place and eight games behind the Athletics is actually not all that terrible under the circumstances. Texas did snap a four game losing streak by shutting out the Miami Marlins 6-0 on Wednesday before having Thursday off.

Hernandez won the Cy Young in 2010 despite having just a 13-12 record as for once the voters got it right and did not penalize him for not getting run support from a bad Seattle team. Well, King Felix could now be on his way to a second Cy Young year as this time he has an 8-1 record so far while again posting dominating stats, as he has a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and a terrific ratio of 106 strikeouts vs. a mere 17 walks in 98 innings.

Hernandez enters this contest in impeccable current form, having allowed a grand total of six runs over his last five starts while not allowing more than two runs in any of those outings with 53 strikeouts vs. five walks in 38.2 innings, including 15 strikeouts in seven scoreless innings vs. the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start Sunday. He has also already tossed two Quality Starts vs. Texas this season allowing a total of four runs and just nine hits in 13 innings with 13 strikeouts.

And while King Felix usually works deep into games, it is still encouraging to know that the Mariners rank second in the American League in bullpen ERA at 2.58, trailing only the Athletics and not by much (2.53).

It is also noteworthy that Hernandez received a no-decision despite hurling possibly his best game of the season in Tampa Bay last time out, and that speaks to the continued struggles of the Seattle offense. The Mariners are hitting only .232 vs. right-handed pitchers overall this season, and they average drops to a pathetic .192 here at spacious Safeco Field, where Seattle is averaging only 3.15 runs per nine innings vs. righties and 3.41 runs per game overall.

That gives hope to Tepesch that he can improve on his 4.91 ERA and 1.56 WHIP to go along with a 2-2 record, and the Mariners are one team that he has demonstrated that he can handle, limiting them to two runs or less the last two times he faced them last season and then getting credit for a Quality Start against them the first time he faced them this year by allowing three runs on just five hits with four strikeouts in 6.1 innings in Arlington.

The Mariners just concluded a successful road trip, but their offensive struggles returned with their return home as they scored a grand total of seven runs in the three losses to the Yankees while never topping three runs.

Thus, look for a low scoring affair and an ‘under’ in the Emerald City on Friday.


MLB Pick: Rangers, Mariners ‘under’ 6½ (-103)

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