MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, June 6, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

There is potential for a much higher scoring game than the total suggests Friday night in a battle of right-handers when Julio Teheran and the Atlanta Braves (31-27, 13-13 away) pay a visit to Brandon McCarthy and the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-36, 9-22 home) at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 9:40 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -104.

The Braves opened up some daylight in the National League East by sweeping three games from the second place Miami Marlins over the weekend, but Atlanta then promptly lost both games of a two-game interleague series vs. the Seattle Mariners at home before an off day on Thursday. The Braves are now back in a virtual tie with those Marlins atop the division, although Atlanta is still technically in first place by one percentage point.

The Diamondbacks are still in last place in the National League West at 14 games behind the first place San Francisco Giants, but Arizona has been playing much better baseball as of late and the Snakes come off of a three-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies where they absolutely crushed the ball, scoring 32 runs and batting .403 as a team with seven home runs in the three games!

They will attempt to stay hot offensively vs. a pitcher that is third in the Major Leagues in ERA in Teheran, who is 5-3 with a 1.83 ERA and a tiny 0.93 WHIP overall and who has maintained those numbers by going 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his last three starts.

Now normally, we would favor the pitcher when a hot pitcher faces a hot offense, because as the old adage says, “Good pitching will stop good hitting.” However, in this case, Teheran has been the biggest overachieving pitcher in baseball so far this early season bases on his sabremetrics, so negative regression is almost certainly inevitable and it may begin vs. this hot Arizona offense.

You see, Teheran has just a 3.68 FIP, and that disparity of 1.85 between his FIP and ERA is the biggest in the majors! The last time we saw a disparity that large around this time of the year was with Jeff Locke last season, and that did not end well. Now, Teheran must deal with an Arizona offense batting .306 overall in the last 10 games while averaging 6.67 runs per nine innings during this span.

And even if Teheran does pitch well again, it still would not mean that this game cannot go ‘over’ this relatively low total because McCarthy has been just plain bad for the Diamondbacks, going a woeful 1-7 with a 5.20 ERA, and he has been even worse than that here at Chase Field where he is 0-4 with a 5.36 ERA. He has allowed exactly five earned runs and nine hits in each of his last two starts, allowing the 10 earned runs in 11 innings.

Part of the problem for McCarthy as well as the other Arizona pitchers has been pitching in a hitter’s park in Phoenix, and that is another reason why 8 is low posted total in this stadium. This total is low due to Teheran getting loads of respect for his minuscule ERA, but that type of respect may be undeserved based in his peripheral numbers.

With that in mind, let us go ‘over’ the total in Arizona on Friday.

[gameodds]3/287439/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Braves, Diamondbacks ‘over’ 8 (-104)