MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, October 18, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Friday, Oct. 18, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

Although the posted total is extremely low on this contest, we still expect an ‘under’ Friday night when Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers look to avoid elimination when they pay a visit to Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 6 of the NLCS from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:37 ET in a game televised nationally on TBS.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 5½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +104.

The Dodgers staved off elimination in Game 5 in Los Angeles, but not without some anxious moments as the Cardinals scored two runs in the ninth inning and brought the go-ahead run to the plate before Los Angeles prevailed 6-4. Thus, the teams return to St. Louis with the Cardinals still leading the series 3-2 and with two chances to close out this series at home.

This pitching matchup certainly does not seem conducive to seeing as many runs as were scored on Wednesday, as this is a rematch from Game 2 when the Cardinals won 1-0 here at home on an unearned run.

With that said, there is no other pitcher that the Dodgers would want on the mound with their season on the line than Kershaw, who surrendered that unearned run on just two hits in six innings in Game 2 and will probably be allowed to work deeper into this game with Los Angeles again facing elimination. And why not, considering that Kershaw is the favorite to take home the National League Cy Young Award.

Kershaw even pitched better than his 16-9 record during the regular season as he led the majors with a 1.83 ERA while also posting a 0.92 WHIP and striking out 232 batters while walking only 52 in 236 innings. He has also been practically unhittable lately as Kershaw has allowed one earned run in 32 innings over his last five starts and two earned runs or less in 15 of his last 16 outings!

On top of all that, the brilliant southpaw is facing a St. Louis offense that is batting only .229 vs. left-handed pitchers over the entire year combining the regular season and playoffs, including batting an anemic .156 vs. lefties while averaging 1.63 runs per nine innings against them over the last 10 games.

Kershaw is not the only hot pitcher in this game however as Wacha has been brilliant in his first two career post-season starts, first taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning while allowing just a solo homer in 7.1 innings with nine strikeouts with St. Louis facing elimination in Game 4 of the NLDS vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, and then holding these Dodgers scoreless on five hits in 6.2 innings with eight more strikeouts in Game 2.

The rookie is not a flash in the pan either as he was highly touted before being called up by the Cardinals this year and he lived up to that billing while allowing two runs or less in seven of his nine regular season starts and finishing the year with 65 strikeouts in 64.2 innings vs. 19 walks.

Therefore, while this total is certainly total, do not look for this game to vary all that much from the 1-0 final in Game 2 between these hurlers so go ‘under’ in St. Louis on Friday.

[gameodds]3/247235/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Dodgers, Cardinals ‘under’ 5½ (+104)

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