MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, October 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Oct. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

It could be a higher scoring game than the fairly low posted total suggests on Friday night when Zack Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers pay a visit to Joe Kelly and the St. Louis Cardinals in the opening game of the NLCS from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:37 ET in a game televised nationally on TBS.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -115.

While the pitchers in this game are obviously to be respected, the NLCS this season pits two of the best offenses in the National League this year, with St. Louis ranking second in the league in batting average at .269 and leading the league in runs scored overall, and the Dodgers ranking third in batting at .264 and leading the league in runs from June 1st onward, coinciding with the recall of Yasiel Puig.

The Dodgers are the more rested team as they wrapped up their NLDS vs. the Atlanta Braves in four games with a 4-3 win behind ace Clayton Kershaw, pitching on three days rest, on Monday. The Cardinals meanwhile were extended to a fifth game by the Pittsburgh Pirates, which they won rather easily at home Wednesday 6-1 behind their ace Adam Wainwright. Thus, neither team has its ace available of this series opener.

Now, the young Kelly had a fine regular season going 10-5 with a spiffy 2.69 ERA for the Cardinals, although his command numbers were not that great with only 79 strikeouts against 44 walks in 124 innings. Then Kelly was on the hook for the loss when he left Game 3 of the NLDS at Pittsburgh in his post-season debut, but he did not factor in the decision in a game St. Louis went on to lose anyway 5-3.

Kelly now must contend with a Dodger lineup that is averaging 4.26 runs per nine innings vs. right-handed pitchers over the entire year combining the regular season and playoffs, and Los Angeles is batting a whopping .284 while averaging 5.49 runs per game against them over the last 10 games. To make matters worse for Kelly, he actually did not pitch as well at home as he did on the road this year, going 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA and high 1.44 WHIP at Busch.

As for Greinke, he may have the best raw “stuff’ of any number two starter in baseball, but remember that he suffers from an anxiety disorder than has made him struggle much more on the road than at home throughout his career and he was the losing pitcher on Game 2 of the NLDS in Atlanta despite pitching reasonably well allowing two earned runs in six innings.

However, no team in the majors hit right-handed pitchers as well as the Cardinals did this season from start to finish, and if we include the NLDS, St. Louis is now batting .273 and averaging a robust 5.26 runs per nine innings vs. righties the whole year.

As good as these two pitchers are, we still feel that these two potent offenses will muster up enough runs to go ‘over’ this low total in Game 1 from St. Louis on Friday.


MLB Pick: Dodgers, Cardinals ‘over’ 7 (-115)

comment here