MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, September 27, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

Two teams that have a history of playing low scoring games may do so again on Friday night when the no longer undefeated Clay Buchholz and the Boston Red Sox (96-63, 43-35 away) pay a visit to a resurgent Scott Feldman and the Baltimore Orioles (83-76, 44-34 home) in the first game of a season-ending three-game series from Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -126.

These teams went ‘under’ in all three games of their recent series in Baltimore last week, with the Red Sox win in the finale of that series beginning the Orioles six-game losing streak that knocked them out of playoff contention. That now brings the ‘under’ to 19-6-2 in the last 27 head-to-head meetings between these clubs.

Boston clinched the American League East a long time ago and they are now setting up their pitching rotation for the post-season with the playoffs beginning next week, a rotation that is certain to include Buchholz as he has picked up right where he left off after spending three months on the Disabled List.

Buchholz will not finish the year undefeated as he took the loss vs. the Toronto Blue Jays last Saturday despite allowing only two earned runs in six innings, dropping him to 11-1 with a scintillating 1.60 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 15 starts covering 101.1 innings. He came off of the Disabled List to start on September 10th, and the two earned runs he allowed last time out were the first two he allowed in his three starts since then, over which he has a 1.06 ERA.

If you like consistency, consider that Buchholz has allowed three earned runs or less in 14 of his 15 starts this year and he allowed only four runs in the other outing. That includes one great start vs. the Orioles where he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits with eight strikeouts.

Do not overlook the Baltimore pitcher Feldman in this contest either however. Sure he struggled in his first six starts in an Oriole uniform after being acquired from the Chicago Cubs while re-adjusting to the American League, but he has rediscovered his Cub form since then while allowing three ruins or less in eight straight starts, doing his part to keep the Orioles in the playoff race for as long as possible.

Feldman pitched well vs. the Red Sox at Fenway Park last week and he has now allowed a total of six earned runs in his last three starts against them, and while Boston is batting a potent .278 vs. right-handed pitchers for the season, that average has dipped to a more modest .244 over the last 10 games.

With all of this in mind, look for the amazing ‘under’ success of this head-to-head series to continue for at least one more game on Friday.

[gameodds]3/244233/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Red Sox, Orioles ‘under’ 8 (-126)