MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, September 6, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Sep. 6, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

Expect a low scoring affair in one of the fiercest rivalries in baseball on national television Friday night when Felix Doubront and the Boston Red Sox (85-57, 38-32 away) pay a visit to the suddenly rejuvenated Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees (75-65, 38-29 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY at 7:05 ET in a game televised live nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -115.

The Yankees were dealt a crushing blow to their playoff hopes on Thursday as Mariano Rivera alarmingly blew his sixth save of the season after being so automatic earlier this year and throughout his career as the Red Sox prevailed 9-8 in 10 innings. That loss dropped New York to nine games behind first place Boston in the American League East and 2½ games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the chase for the final wild card spot.

The Red Sox meanwhile have a 6½-game lead over those Rays in the division and the lead the Detroit Tigers by three games for the best record in the American League. If they hold on, the American League playoffs will have to go through Fenway Park, which is significant with Boston also owning the best home record in the AL at 47-25.

With that said, the Red Sox may not have their typically good hitting night vs. Pettitte tonight, as he seems to have discovered the Fountain of Youth as of late. The 41-year-old appeared to be finished at times earlier this season, and he is still a very mediocre 10-9 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. However, seemingly out of nowhere, Pettitte has suddenly allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts!

He allowed two runs in six innings vs. the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday before the bullpen spit the bit in a 7-3 Yankee loss, and has allowed a grand total of three runs over his last three starts while going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Pettitte is not a big strikeout guy any more with 101 in 150.1 innings, but by the same token he has also issued only 39 walks.

Furthermore Pettitte has pitched well vs. Boston this year going 2-1 with a sparkling 2.14 ERA and 1.10 WHIP against them with 12 strikeouts against only three walks in 21 innings.

Doubront showed some glimpses of greatness for Boston in prior seasons, but he has become more consistent this year so he too should help keep the scoring down in this contest. Yes, Doubront threw in a dud last time out when he surrendered four earned runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings vs. the Chicago White Sox, but we will grant him a mulligan there after incredibly allowing three earned runs or less in 18 of his previous 19 starts!

Throw in the fact that the ‘under’ is 9-2-1 in the Red Sox last 12 road games vs. left-handed starters and look for one more ‘under’ in the Bronx on Friday.


MLB Pick: Red Sox, Yankees ‘under’ 9 (-115)

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