MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, August 30, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

There could be a low scoring affair in Beantown Friday night when Hector Santiago and the Chicago White Sox (56-76, 24-42 away) pay a visit to Ryan Dempster and the Boston Red Sox (79-56, 42-24 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -101.

The Red Sox just took two out of three from the Baltimore Orioles, failing the complete the sweep with a 3-2 loss last night. That still leaves Boston with a 2½-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays atop the American League East, with the Orioles 6½ games back in third.

The White Sox meanwhile are not going anywhere as they are dead last in the American League Central and own the second worst record in the American League ahead of only the Houston Astros. To their credit though, the White Sox have now won five consecutive series, although their offensive woes this year have led to an inordinate amount of no-decisions for their starting pitchers that have pitched well, with Santiago being among that group.

Santiago is just 4-7 on the season despite a 3.25 ERA, limiting opponents to a .234 batting average and recording 126 strikeouts in 130 innings. Remarkably the young southpaw has now allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts including allowing two runs or less in eight of them. Yet, he is 1-2 with seven no-decisions in that time! The latest no-decision came despite limiting the Texas Rangers to two runs and five hits in 6.1 innings last out.

The Red Sox have already seen what Santiago can do this year when he held them to two runs on a measly three hits with nine strikeouts in six innings on May 22nd before the Chicago bullpen yielded four runs in a 6-2 loss. At least he now has the support of an improved bullpen that has posted a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last 10 games.

Dempster is making his first start since intentionally hitting Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees on August 18th, resulting in a league suspension. Dempster has been a disappointment this season as he is just 6-9 with a 4.77 ERA. Still, he should benefit here from facing a White Sox offense that ranks dead last in the American League in runs scored while averaging only 3.80 runs per game.

Interestingly, as potent as the Boston offense is, it is the ‘under’ that is 16-7-1 in the Red Sox last 24 home games. Given the combination of Santiago’s form and the Chicago hitting woes, look for that pattern to continue for at least one more game on Friday.

[gameodds]3/242214/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: White Sox, Red Sox ‘under’ 9 (-101)