MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, August 23, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Aug. 23, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

One pitcher that is very underrated and another that is showing recent signs of improvement should result in a low scoring affair Friday night when Jhoulys Chacin and the Colorado Rockies (59-70, 23-43 away) pay a visit to the Tom Koehler and the Miami Marlins (48-78, 28-37 home) in the first game of a three-game weekend Marlins Ballpark in Miami, FL at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -115.

The Rockies may be in third place in the National League West, but they are not in playoff contention as they now trail the first place Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 games after blowing a ninth-inning lead in a 5-4 road loss to the Philadelphia Phillies last night, enabling a basically dead Philadelphia team to take three out of four in that series.

The Marlins have the worst record in the National League and they also just lost three out of four games in their most recent series, although at least theirs was vs. the hottest team in baseball in the Dodgers. The Marlins are still putrid offensively, but they actually have a very respectable 3.76 team ERA, resulting in the ‘under’ going 64-51-11, 55.6 percent in all Miami games this year.

Now, Chacin is not a household name east of the Rocky Mountains, but he is quietly having a very solid campaign as he is 11-7 pitching for a team 11 games under .500 with a stellar 3.24 ERA. He enters this contest in excellent current form having allowed three runs or less in each of his last eight starts, including limiting these Marlins to two earned runs in seven innings in the altitude of Colorado on July 23rd.

Then again, most pitchers have been limiting the Miami offense all year as it ranks dead last in the Major Leagues in batting average (.232), runs per game (3.23), home runs (70) and team OPS (.624)!

One thing that has gotten a bit better about the Marlins has been the pitching of Koehler. While he remains 3-8 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.39 WHIP overall, Koehler has now allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts, and taking that back further he has seven such outings in his last nine starts. That latter stretch includes a fine outing vs. these Rockies in Denver where he allowed just one run in seven innings with seven strikeouts and not a single walk.

He now gets to face them in Miami, and the Colorado offense has not been nearly as potent on the road as it has in Denver, averaging only 3.50 runs per game when travelling with a mediocre .244 batting average.

Thus look for both offenses to have their struggles in a low scoring contest on Friday.


MLB Pick: Rockies, Marlins ‘under’ 7½ (-115)

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