MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, August 16, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

One pitcher that has pitched well for his new team and another that has pitched well vs. his opponent tonight should key an ‘under’ in a pitcher’s ballpark Friday night when Jonathan Niese and the New York Mets (55-64, 30-32 away) pay a visit to Ian Kennedy and the San Diego Padres (54-67, 31-28 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 10:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -115.

The Mets won the series opener 4-1 here on Thursday as the starters Zack Wheeler and Tyson Ross both pitched very well without earning decisions. That contest stayed easily ‘under’, bring the ‘under’ to 11-4-1 in the Mets’ last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, all games at Petco Park have averaged just 7.71 combined runs this season and this is even more of a pitcher’s park at night when the ball does not travel as well.

Neither of these teams probably needs to worry about post-season play. The Mets are in third place in the National League East, but they are 18 games behind the runaway division leading Atlanta Braves and 13 games out of a wild card spot. The Padres are two games worse than the Mets and 16½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West.

Being out of contention did not prevent San Diego from acquiring Ian Kennedy from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trading deadline. It was just two years ago that Kennedy went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA for Arizona, but he has tailed off considerably since and was 3-8 with a 5.23 ERA for the Diamondbacks this year when traded. However, Kennedy is enjoying his life as a Padre as he has pitched well in his two starts vs. the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds.

In fact Kennedy has allowed a grand total of four runs and seven hits in 13.2 innings in a San Diego uniform with nine strikeouts. His success could continue tonight as he is 4-0 in five career starts vs. the Mets with a 3.45 ERA while holding Mets’ batters to a .215 batting average. However, just like his no-decision at Cincinnati on Sunday, Kennedy’s good pitching may again not translate to a win.

Niese had an off night for the Mets vs. the Diamondbacks last time out allowing four earned runs on seven hits in six innings, but that snapped a streak of allowing three earned runs or less in six straight starts, something that Niese has now done 11 times in his 15 starts while allowing more than four runs only twice.

Furthermore Niese is a perfect four for four in Quality Starts in his career vs. the Padres, posting a 2.15 ERA and a miniscule 0.89 WHIP in those starts while holding San Diego batters to a .208 batting average with 20 strikeouts and only four walks in 29.1 innings.

Thus expect a good old fashioned pitching duel at Petco Park on Friday.

[gameodds]3/241451/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Mets, Padres ‘under’ 7 (-115)