MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, August 9, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

Expect a low scoring affair Friday night when the recently acquired Jake Peavy and the Boston Red Sox (70-47, 31-26 away) pay a visit to Ervin Santana and the red-hot Kansas City Royals (59-53, 30-25 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -108.

It is a shame for the Royals that the Detroit Tigers simply do not lose games any more because Kansas City is scorching-hot in its own right at 15-2 in the last 17 games after taking the series opener from Boston 5-1 here last night. Unfortunately the Royals have not put much of a dent in Detroit’s lead in the American League Central as they still trail by 8½ games, but they have pulled to within 4½ games of the second and last wild card spot.

The most amazing aspect about the Royals’ 15-2 run has been the great pitching, which continued last night with Bruce Chen tossing 7.2 scoreless innings while allowing just five hits before the Red Sox scored their lone run in the ninth inning. Incredibly, the Royals have now allowed three runs or less in every single one of those last 15 wins! Kansas City now leads the American League in team ERA at 3.54, just ahead of Detroit at 3.56.

Santana has been a key component to that pitching success as he has undergone a revival in his first season with the Royals after struggling in his last couple of years with the Los Angeles Angels. Santana now has 11 Quality Starts in his last 12 total starts with the only bad outing coming vs. the New York Yankees on July 11th, leaving him at a deceptive 8-6 for the season as he has an excellent 2.97 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while yielding just a .227 batting average.

Santana also has an excellent ratio of 120 strikeouts vs. 34 walks and his record would obviously be much better with some more decent run support. His only start vs. Boston this season was a very good one, as he allowed only two runs on six hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts and not a single walk in a 4-2 victory at Fenway Park. As you might expect, the ‘under’ is a lucrative 15-7 in all of Santana’s starts this year.

The Red Sox still lead the American League East by two games over the second place Tampa Bay Rays, and they fortified their pitching staff with the acquisition of Peavy at the trading deadline. Peavy made his Boston debut vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks last Saturday and he was terrific allowing two runs on four hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts. Peavy is now 9-4 with 83 strikeouts vs. just 19 walks in 87 innings with the two Sox teams combined.

Peavy had a nice outing in his only start vs. Kansas City this season while he was with the White Sox as he allowed only one earned run on four hits in six innings with six strikeouts and nary a walk, so runs should be at a premium in an ‘under’ on Friday.

[gameodds]3/240927/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Red Sox, Royals ‘under’ 7½ (-108)