MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, August 2, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Aug. 2, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

In a matchup between two starting pitchers that are in improving form and are both making there first career starts vs. their opponents, runs may be hard to come by Friday when Wade Davis and the Kansas City Royals (54-51, 27-27 away) pay a visit to Dillon Gee and the New York Mets (48-58, 21-30 home) in the first game of a three-game interleague series from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

The Kansas City Royals have suddenly become one of the hottest teams in baseball as they have reeled off nine straight wins to get themselves in the American League Central race while now in third place at a manageable 6½ games behind the first place Detroit Tigers. This streak has been keyed by great pitching as the Royals allowed three runs or less in all nine of the wins!

That appears to make this a nightmarish matchup for the offensively challenged Mets, who have scored two runs or less in five of their last seven games including putting up a grand total of two runs on the last two games vs. the lowly Miami Marlins, even losing with Matt Harvey on the mound Thursday. With that said, the Mets certainly still have a chance in this game because their starter Gee is more than capable of quieting the Kansas City bats and keeping this score down.

Yes, Gee is only 7-8 with a 4.13 ERA overall and he allowed four runs in seven innings vs. the Washington Nationals last time out, but he had tossed 13.2 scoreless innings in his previous two starts against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves. In fact, Gee has impressively allowed two runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts, so he would have a much better record if he pitched for a team that can actually score and we expect a nice bounce-back effort tonight.

Also, while the Kansas City pitching has been amazing during its winning streak, the offense has remained erratic and the Royals are now facing a pitcher that they are not familiar with. On top of this, the often maligned Mets’ bullpen has been much improved while recording a 2.00 ERA and a miniscule 0.96 WHIP over the last 10 games.

The Royals’ starter Davis remains only 5-9 with a 5.50 ERA and a bloated 1.75 WHIP overall, but apparently the fine Kansas City pitching as of late has been contagious because Davis has allowed two earned runs over his last two starts including tossing 7.1 scoreless innings at the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. Davis is finally starting to resemble the serviceable pitcher the Royals thought they were acquiring from the Tampa Bay Rays to bolster the pitching staff.

Facing an inept New York offense for the first time ever helps, and then there is the incredible Kansas City bullpen at the ready at the first hint of trouble, as that unit is full of live young arms and leads that American League with a 2.90 ERA, ranking second in the majors behind only the Atlanta Braves.

Thus, look for the pitchers to dominate from start to finish in an ‘under’ in Queens on Friday.


MLB Pick: Royals, Mets ‘under’ 8 (-113)

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