MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, July 26, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Friday, Jul. 26, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

Two teams that have had strong ‘under’ tendencies square off in the altitude on Friday night when Wily Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers (42-59, 16-30 away) pay a visit to Tyler Chatwood and the Colorado Rockies (49-54, 29-25 home) in the first game of a weekend three-game series from Coors Field in Denver, CO at 8:40 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

The Rockies have scored the fewest runs in the Major Leagues during July, averaging a woeful 2.90 runs per game this calendar month. Things have gotten so bad for the Colorado offense that the Rockies just lost three out of four games to the lowest scoring team in the majors over the entire season, the Miami Marlins, here at home while scoring a grand total of eight runs in the four games and never topping three runs in a game.

Despite this severe drought at the plate, Colorado is still in the National League West Division race, in third place and just five games behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers. However, the way the Dodgers are just crushing it right now, the Rockies will need to improve dramatically on offense to remain in the race, and they are showing no signs that will happen. At least they have gotten great pitching from Chatwood this season, and he should pitch well again here.

Chatwood is now 6-3 with a spiffy 2.48 ERA after limiting the Chicago Cubs to one earned run and seven hits in six innings on Sunday, and he has incredibly allowed two earned runs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts, including tossing the only Complete Game by the Rockies all season ironically in a 1-0 loss to those red-hot Dodgers on July 13th. Chatwood has only faced the Brewers once in his career, allowing one earned run and just four hits in six innings last season.

Chatwood should do his part to keep this game ‘under’, but unfortunately for Colorado, so should the offense that has been so anemic in July. The Rockies went ‘under’ in all four games of the just completed series vs. Miami, and the ‘under’ is currently 20-6 in the last 26 Colorado games overall!

The Brewers have not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either notwithstanding a rare outburst in a 10-8 loss to the San Diego Padres on Thursday. That explosion snapped a streak of seven consecutive ‘unders’ for the Brew Crew, and the ‘under’ is 13-3 in the last 16 Milwaukee games overall.

The Brewers have a hot pitcher of their own on the mound in Peralta, who has allowed a grand total of one run in his last four starts covering 29.1 innings! Peralta may still be just 7-9 with a 4.30 ERA for the season, but he has been considered a top pitching prospect since coming up to the majors last season, so he is probably the real deal right now that just needed some time to figure things out.

So with two hot pitchers and two struggling offenses, everything seems to point to the strong recent ‘under’ trends for these two teams to continue for at least one more game on Friday.

[gameodds]3/240107/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Brewers, Rockies ‘under’ 9½ (-113)

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