MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, July 19, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Jul. 19, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

It may be a low scoring game as one of the most intense rivalries in all of sports resumes with MLB teams returning from the All-Star break Friday night when Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees (51-44, 23-21 away) pay a visit to the fed-hot Felix Doubront and the Boston Red Sox (58-39, 31-16 home) in the first game of a weekend three-game series from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 7:10 ET in a game being televised nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -109.

The Yankees deserve credit for being only six games behind the first place Red Sox while in fourth place at the break considering that most of their superstars have missed all or most of the season while on the Disabled List, and now the only remaining true superstar in the everyday Yankee lineup Robinson Cano had to leave the All-Star Game after getting hit on the knee with a Matt Harvey fastball in the first inning.

It turned out that Cano suffered a right quadriceps contusion and he is fine and should be in the lineup for this game, but with Cano being the only bona fide New York threat right now, pitchers are simply working very carefully to him and bearing down on the rest of the lineup, and as a result the Yankees uncharacteristically have a .239 team batting average at the break while averaging only 3.93 runs per game.

New York has particularly struggled vs. left-handers, batting .230 against them overall including hitting a pathetic .185 and averaging an almost non-existent 0.60 runs per nine innings against southpaws over the last 10 games! That should make life easy for Boston southpaw Doubront, who has not needed much help while allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts.

Most recently Doubront held the Seattle Mariners to one run and only five hits in seven innings with six strikeouts in his last outing, and furthermore Doubront is a perfect five for five in his career in Quality Starts vs. the Yankees while posting a 2.52 ERA against them and holding Yankee batters to a scant .198 batting average. There is really no reason for that dominance to end here given the current state of the New York lineup.

While the Red Sox certainly seem to have a big pitching edge, we really have no interest in backing Boston as a decided favorite in a rivalry game. However, since we expect Doubront to maintain his fine form, we do think that the ‘under’ holds value provided the Red Sox do not totally rough up Pettitte.

Obviously Andy is not what he once was, but he has allowed three earned runs in three of his last four starts and he pitched very well the first time he faced the Red Sox this season allowing just one run in eight innings. Pettitte probably only needs to be serviceable to help keep this game ‘under’ and his first start vs. Boston as well as his decent recent form show that he is quite capable of that.

Besides, he also has the support of a Yankee bullpen that has posted a 2.48 ERA over the last 10 games, so look for this game to stay in the single-digits in Boston on Friday.


MLB Pick: Yankees, Red Sox ‘under’ 9½ (-109)

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