MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, July 5, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

It should be a relatively low scoring game north of the border Friday night when Kevin Correia and the Minnesota Twins (36-46, 15-23 away) pay a visit to Mark Buehrle and the Toronto Blue Jays (41-44, 23-20 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:07 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

The Blue Jays were the favorites to win the American League East before the year but they got off to a terrible start and have been in last place most of the season. They did appear to right the ship when they recently had an 11-game winning streak, and they once pulled to within five games of the division lead, but they just lost the last three games of a four-game series vs. the Detroit Tigers, losing the series finale 11-1 to drop 11 games behind the Boston Red Sox.

Toronto has not hit well lately, batting just .233 as a team over the last 10 games including hitting .230 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging just 3.86 runs per nine innings against them during this stretch. The starting pitching has been disappointing all year as it was believed to be much improved after some key acquisitions, but one of those new faces Buehrle is one pitcher that has indeed turned his year around nicely.

Sure, the crafty veteran southpaw is still just 4-5 with a 4.81 ERA, but keep in mind that Buehrle had a 6.33 ERA following his May 17th start vs. the New York Yankees and he has been very solid in his eight starts since then, posting a 3.12 ERA with a nice ratio of 34 strikeouts against 14 walks.

Buehrle has also dominated Minnesota in recent years. In fact, he has not given up an earned run in 23.2 innings over his last three career starts vs. the Twins, and he has allowed just one earned run in 30.2 innings in his last four starts against them! The 34-year-old has been particularly tough on the Twins’ left-handed batting veteran leaders Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, who are batting a combined .207 in 111 career at-bats against him.

The Twins were just swept in a four-game series by the New York Yankees losing the series finale 9-5 Thursday, and they now hope to get back on track with Correia on the bump, who has been somewhat surprisingly pretty consistent in his first season in Minnesota.

Granted Correia comes off of a rough outing on Sunday where he allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings vs. the Kansas City Royals, but that snapped a streak where he had allowed three runs or less in four consecutive starts, a feat that he has now accomplished 12 times out of 16 total starts this year. Furthermore he allowed only four runs in three other starts, meaning that Sunday’s start was the first time all year Correia allowed more than four runs.

He can now get going again vs. a Toronto offense which, as mentioned, has struggled with right-handers as of late, so look for both pitchers to do enough to keep this total run output in the single-digits on Friday.

[gameodds]3/238074/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Twins, Blue Jays ‘under’ 9 (-113)