MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Friday

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, May 31, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

Do not look for too much scoring in the Twin Cities Friday night when Hisashi Iwakuma and the Seattle Mariners (23-31, 10-19 away) pay a visit to Mike Pelfrey and the Minnesota Twins (23-28, 11-13 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -108.

The Mariners are in fourth place in the American League West and the are closer to last place, sitting six games ahead of the Houston Astros, than they are to the first place Texas Rangers whom they trail by 10½ games. The problem for Seattle, just as it has been for few years now, is that it is an offensively challenged ballclub.

The Mariners rank dead last in the American League in batting average at .237 and their 3.69 runs per game place them second to last in scoring ahead of only the Chicago White Sox. The news is not all bleak though as Seattle has now found a bona fide number two starting pitcher to compliment former Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez.

That would be the Japanese import Iwakuma, who has managed to go 5-1 while pitching for a team that is eight games under .500 with an outstanding 2.35 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 69 strikeouts against only 11 walks in 72.2 innings while holding opponents to a .194 batting average. Iwakuma is coming off of another win vs. the Texas Rangers where he allowed two runs and only five hits in eight innings with eight strikeouts and not a single walk.

Furthermore, Iwakuma has been practically perfect in his two starts against the Twins, not allowing an earned run and surrendering only five hits in 13 innings with 10 strikeouts. He is now catching a Minnesota lineup that is batting only .228 overall over the last 10 games while averaging 3.93 runs per nine innings during that span.

Yes, the Twins have been playing better baseball lately as they just swept four games from the Milwaukee Brewers and have won five out of six overall, but they have not run into any pitcher as good as Iwakuma during this streak that has befuddled them so easily in his brief Major League career, and as mentioned, although the Twins have started to win some games, they are still not hitting.

Now Friday starter Pelfrey has certainly had his struggles with a 6.85 ERA and 1.76 WHIP, but he has also had a few good moments such as allowing three runs or less in three of his last five starts and this will be his first appearance ever vs. a struggling Seattle lineup that is batting .231 overall in the last 10 games while averaging 3.71 runs per nine innings, which should work to his advantage.

Besides, should Pelfrey be in need of relief the Minnesota bullpen has been outstanding over those same last 10 games with a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP while yielding just a .176 batting average. That should limit the last tack-on runs in this game and help ensure an ‘under’ in a battle of two weak offenses on Friday.

[gameodds]3/228410/238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Mariners, Twins ‘under’ 8 (-108)