MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles ‘under’ 8½

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, April 22, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Apr. 22, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Chris Tillman of the Orioles and J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays are both off to disappointing starts, but both are capable of much better and some correction is in order so go ‘under’ Monday.

The ‘under’ could hold some sneaky value in one of the MLB matchups on Monday night as JA. Happ and the Toronto Blue Jays (8-11, 3-3 away) pay a visit to Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles (10-8, 5-4 home) in the opening game of a three-game series from Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at 5 Dimes is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +105.

The Orioles surprised the world with their wild card run a year ago, but most experts attributed that to luck as Baltimore finished 16-2 in extra-inning games and 29-9 in one-run games. Well, the Orioles seem determined to prove that 2012 was not a fluke as they have moved to within two games of the first place Boston Red Sox in the American League East in the early going after taking two out of three games from the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend.

The Orioles have been scoring enough runs averaging 5.0 of them per game, but the starting pitching has been disappointing with a collective 4.97 ERA, and that includes tonight’s starter Tillman, who is at 0-1 through three starts with an ugly 7.07 ERA and 1.93 WHIP while not yet going beyond 5.1 innings.

Tillman is bound to come around though as he has always been highly regarded and he had a breakthrough season last year going 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 15 starts. Tillman also just turned 25-years-old last week, so we are not that concerned about his slow start as he should regain his form from last year soon enough.

In fact, his turnaround may come tonight vs. a struggling Toronto offense that is averaging a disappointing 3.79 runs per game with a dismal .232 team batting average. Tillman certainly had his way with the Blue Jays the last time he faced them, allowing two runs on only four hits in seven innings with five strikeouts vs. just one walk. If Tillman is in need of relief, the fine Baltimore bullpen has posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the last 10 games.

The Blue Jays were actually favored by many to win the American League East before the season, but they are currently in last place, albeit a manageable 4½ games behind the Red Sox after losing two out of three games to the New York Yankees over the weekend.

The Toronto starter Happ may be 2-1, but he has a rather bloated 5.06 ERA. However, that ERA seems rather fluky considering his good 1.19 WHIP. Also, Happ has allowed a total of only five runs in two career starts vs. the Orioles including recording nine strikeouts last season in his only start ever here at Camden Yards.

Look for both pitchers to positively regress to their proper levels and for these teams to stay ‘under’ on Monday.


MLB Pick: Blue Jays, Orioles ‘under’ 8½ (+105)

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