MLB Pick on tonight's Marlins vs. Rangers matchup

Joe Catalano

Wednesday, June 11, 2014 2:00 PM GMT

The Miami Marlins are on the road visiting the Global Life Park in Arlington, Texas to play against the Rangers. We offer you a free pick on what promises to be a very exciting game.

One of the surprising teams in the majors is the Miami Marlins (34-30), who see themselves in a favorable matchup as they face the disappointing Texas Rangers (31-34) who have lost 4 straight games. That said, the Marlins are a massive +202 betting underdog in this game.

First pitch is set for 8:05 p.m. ET tonight at Global Life Park in Arlington, Texas. This game can be seen on MLB TV.


Odds Makers In Love With Darvish
According to 5 Dimes Sportsbook, the Texas Rangers are a -222 betting favorite with the total listed at 8.5 runs. This is because the great Yu Darvish (6-2, 2.36) takes the mound in Arlington tonight for Texas. The question is whether Darvish worthy of such massive odds, since the Rangers have been slumping?

I won’t mislead you folks: there’s no way that I would take the Rangers in this situation; I would try to look for a way to fade them or focus my MLB picks on the total for this game.

Defensively, Texas hasn’t fared well lately as they’ve allowed 25 runs in their last 2 games.


They’re For Real!
Southern Florida has finally gotten a team with some talent, led by Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins offense is off the chart as they rank 6th in the majors in runs scored, 5th in batting average, and 10th in on-base percentage. This offense is filled with a bunch of “no-namers” who can consistently hit well and Miami has acquired some great talents along the way such as Casey McGehee (1 HR, 39 RBI, .306 BA) and Garrett Jones (8 HR, 29 RBI, .275 BA).

[gameodds]3/286909/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds] 

Christian Yellich
Every successful team needs a good leadoff man and although Yellich’s numbers don’t jump off the charts, he can provide some big games and is a big reason why Miami is winning. Yellich is coming off of a 4 for 6 performance against Texas in which he had 2 doubles and 4 runs batted in. In his last 3 games, Yellich is also 8 for 14 with 1 HR and 6 RBI. If any hitter has a chance against Yu Darvish, it’s Christian Yellich.


How Good Is Darvish?
He might be a very good Major League pitcher, but I think that odds makers get carried away with Yu Darvish’s ability to strike out batters. He has 91 strikeouts in 76 1/3 innings, but Darvish is also a pitcher that consistently gives up from 2 to 4 runs per ball game. These odds are extreme.

Darvish does get supported by a Rangers team that ranks 3rd in the league in batting average and 12 in runs scored. The Rangers don’t have major power as they’re led by Adrian Beltre (8 HR, 29 RBI, .320 BA). Guys like Beltre and Alex Rios have been coming up with big hits for Texas, but this is far from an intimidating lineup.


Choo Who?
You can somewhat say that Sin Soo-Choo has been a bust. Choo has hit just .256 on the season and hasn’t displayed the same base stealing skills that he did with the Reds.


Outcome
I’m going to take the risk and pick the better team in the Marlins. I think that the Rangers do have an edge with Darvish pitching, but he’s hittable and these odds are outrageous.

Free MLB Pick: Miami +202 at 5 Dimes