MLB Pick on Tigers, Royals to Stay ‘under’ in Series Opener

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, April 30, 2015 4:28 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 30, 2015 4:28 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.


Pitching may rule the night on Thursday when the top two teams in the American League Central collide as right-hander Alfredo Simon and the first place Detroit Tigers (15-7, 7-2 away) pay a visit to southpaw Danny Duffy and the second place Kansas City Royals (14-7, 7-2 home) in the first game of a big four-game series from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:10 ET in a game televised nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

Here We Go Again!
These two teams took the AL Central race down to the season’s final days last year, when although the Royals were the team coming within one game of winning the World Series, it was Detroit who prevailed in the division. Well, in the words of Yogi Berra, it is now already “déjà vu all over again” in the early going with just one-half game separating the first place Tigers from the second place Royals, who in turn have opened up 4½ games on the White Sox.

Both of these teams have decent momentum after taking two out of three in their most recent series, both on the road, with the Royals doing so vs. the Indians in Cleveland and the Tigers accomplishing the feat vs. the Twins in Minnesota, thanks to overcoming a 7-3 deficit in that series finale yesterday to win 10-7, making Detroit the winning MLB pick in four of its last five games.

Smooth Transition for Simon
Simon comes off of what most believed was a career year for him in his first full season as a full-time starter at the age of 33 for the Cincinnati Reds last season, when he finished 15-10 with a 3.44 ERA while earning his first career All-Star Game appearance, but he is doing his best to show that 2014 was not a fluke in his first season with the Tigers.

Simon has won all four of his starts in a Detroit uniform while posting a 1.65 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, and one thing that Simon has done well throughout his career is post strong first halves, as he is 24-11 with a 2.95 ERA lifetime prior to the All-Star break!

Simon has not started against the Royals since 2011, although he is 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a .214 batting average allowed against them, and the unfamiliarity of many current Kansas City batters with him could work to his advantage.

Duffy Has Done Well vs. Tigers
Duffy started coming into his own last season although you would not know it from his 9-12 record, as he pitched in hard luck given his excellent 2.53 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .209 batting average allowed. Unfortunately he was a bit off in his first three starts of this season, but he comes off of his best outing of the year allowing just an unearned run on six hits in 5.1 innings against those Chicago White Sox, although he got no decision in a 3-2 Royals’ loss.

And although Duffy had a couple of rough outings vs. Detroit early in his career, he has baffled Tiger batters over the last two years, allowing two runs or less in all five starts against them during this time, netting him a spiffy 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over those outings.

One problem for Duffy has always been stamina, but that is not necessarily a bad thing when pitching for a Royals’ team that has one of the best bullpens in baseball. And nothing has changed this season with the Kansas City bullpen leading the Major Leagues with a 1.05 ERA while posting a brilliant collective WHIP of 0.78.

Trending ‘under’ in Kansas City
Finally the ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams here at Kauffman Stadium, as well as an identical 5-1 in Duffy’s last five home starts vs. the Tigers here.

Add this all up and runs should be pretty much at a premium, so go ‘under’ as Detroit visits Kansas City on Thursday.

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MLB Pick: Tigers, Royals ‘under’ 8 (-105)

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