MLB Pick: Texas Rangers -112 over Minnesota Twins

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, April 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The Rangers have won five of their last six while averaging 8.2 runs in the wins and should tee off on Vance Worley of the Twins. Also, Nick Tepesch is good to go after injuring his wrist.

The road favorites are on a hot roll which they look to continue Thursday night as Nick Tepesch and the Texas Rangers (14-7, 7-5 away) pay a visit to Vance Worley and the Minnesota Twins (9-8, 5-4 home) as the teams begin a four-game series from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at 5 Dimes has Texas as a modest road favorite for this contest at current odds of -112.

The Rangers have now won five of their last six games as they followed up a three-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners this past weekend at home by going on the road and taking two out of three games from the Los Angeles Angels in a series that wrapped up with an 11-3 Texas thumping last night, marking the second time in those last six games that the Rangers have scored 11 runs.

In fact the Rangers have averaged a hefty 8.2 runs per game in their five wins during this streak, thanks to some nice clutch hitting that has seen Texas go 18-for-57 (.316) with runners in scoring position over the six games. They now get a chance to tee off on Minnesota’s Worley, who we have felt has been overrated since putting up deceptively good numbers for the Philadelphia Phillies two years ago.

Worley went 11-3 for the Phillies as a rookie in 2011, but Philadelphia gave him a lot of help that year and his sabremetrics were not in line with his 3.01 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Last season was more representative of his true ability, as Worley went 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA and a bloated 1.51 WHIP with the league batting a healthy .296 off of him. That prompted the Phillies to trade the spectacled right-hander to the Twins in the off-season for outfielder Ben Revere.

Well, Worley’s shortcomings have been even more obvious vs. the more powerful American League lineups, as he is 0-2 in four starts with a terrible 7.11 ERA and 1.89 WHIP, and the .349 opposing batting average that he is yielding is the worst in the Major Leagues!

The Rangers counter with Tepesch, who is good to go for this start after taking a line drive in the wrist vs. the Mariners on Saturday which forced him to depart after 2.1 innings. Even counting that abbreviated outing, Tepesch has been quite effective over his first three Major League starts this year while posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 13 strikeouts against just three walks in 14.2 innings.

Tepesch has the look of a young pitcher that should be tough his first time through the league and he is now facing a Minnesota lineup batting only .234 vs. right-handed pitchers so far, so look for his continued early success combined with the hot Texas hitting to result in a nice road win at a reasonable price on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Rangers -112

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