Capper checks out the betting odds for tonights game two of the Mariners-Yankees series in New York and shares his thoughts of backing the under when Iwakuma takes on Pineda & the Bronx Bombers.
It is impossible to be 100% correct when handicapping sports. I am really happy to say I was wrong about Hisashi Iwakuma before the All-Star break when he faced the Los Angeles Angels. After getting into some trouble in his first inning he was solid the rest of the way, which makes me happy because I am a fan of his.
MLB odds makers have come out with a total at 8 for this game with a couple places having it at 7.5. The juice right now on the under is a little bit high at -120, but at Pinnacle you can get the under the total of 8 at -115. I am not a big proponent of paying juice but I think there is good value on the under with two good pitchers on the mound the first game back from the break.
Hisashi Iwauma gets the call with a 5.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP for the Mariners. You would think with a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 and pitching in Yankee Stadium that the number for this game would be higher. But MLB odds makers are well aware that Iwakuma is a very solid major league pitcher. He is just back from injury and had a tough first outing a couple weeks ago against the Tigers, and then was really solid against the Angels in Seattle (a game in which I went against him). He seems back and healthy after watching him pitch against the Angels in which he allowed zero earned runs in eight innings pitched off of just three hits. In his last two years against the Yankees he has allowed only five earned runs in 14 innings. Michael Pineda will take the mound for the New York Yankees with a 3.64 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He has 111 strikeouts in just 106 innings and at home he has a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and 56 innings. Just prior to the break he was pitching very well allowing three earned runs in his last three starts after a surprisingly rough outing against the Phillies.
At the Plate
There is quite the disparity between these two teams offensively. The Yankees rank second in the league in runs scored per game and the Mariners 27th. In OPS the Yankees ranked fifth and the Mariners rank 26th. This is pretty much the theme we see when putting these two teams side-by-side. It looks like the key will be for Iwakuma to keep the numbers down against the Yankees, but I actually think although the Mariners stats are not very good they do have some nice hitters in the lineup so Pineda is going to have to bring his "A" game.
I am not surprised at the number on this game but I am surprised that the juice is going with the under. It kind of tells me that odds makers are anticipating a low-scoring affair and I completely agree with them on this assessment. Both of these pitchers know how to get out of tough spots so look for them to battle and keep the run total down.
MLB Pick: Mariners & Yankees Under 8